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Ucore Rare Metals Inc. · Critical materials
A comprehensive 2026-stub and 2027-2031 valuation of Louisiana, a risked Canadian Sm/Gd SMC, Bokan-Dotson Ridge, external RapidSX optionality, corporate cash, overhead, financing need and dilution.
Base-case value estimate
$2.05
Based on the conditions listed in “Phased portfolio commercialization.”
Blended scenario result
$3.11
This combines the displayed scenarios using the model weights. The weights are judgment calls, not statistical guarantees.
A comprehensive 2026-stub and 2027-2031 valuation of Louisiana, a risked Canadian Sm/Gd SMC, Bokan-Dotson Ridge, external RapidSX optionality, corporate cash, overhead, financing need and dilution.
Estimate Ucore common-equity value without treating Louisiana as the entire portfolio or assigning unsupported value to uncontracted optionality.
The model adapts its assumptions and calculation structure to the economics, timing, financing, and risks of the specific company or asset.
The displayed result is conditional on the model's assumptions and should be read as an estimate rather than a prediction.
A DCF estimates present value from future cash flows. This page may also use project probabilities, cap rates, net asset value, or sum-of-the-parts methods where they fit the asset better. The model type is shown above and explained here before the detailed tables.
Use these sections in order or jump directly to the part you need. The plain-language explanation comes first; the detailed assumptions, formulas, sources, and change log remain available underneath it.
Use the spreadsheet to inspect formulas or change assumptions. JSON and CSV versions are available for structured review and data reuse.
Model overview
Main question
Estimate Ucore common-equity value without treating Louisiana as the entire portfolio or assigning unsupported value to uncontracted optionality.
Technical approach
Probability-weighted five-year corporate SOTP
Company or asset
Ucore Rare Metals Inc.
Estimate date
Aug 21, 2026
Years modeled
2026 stub and 2027-2031
Currency
CAD
Diluted shares used
167.8 million
Net debt / (cash) used
-$70.00 million
Research status
Current preliminary model — SCREEN-GRADE / OPEN pending binding commercial economics and updated financing evidence.
Model author
Ephesus Research
Last updated
Aug 22, 2026
Linked sources
11 records
Version
2.0.0
3 possible outcomes
The base case is the central set of assumptions, not a guaranteed result. Compare every named scenario to see how delays, weaker economics, stronger execution, financing, or other major changes affect the estimate. Any edge case is deliberately kept separate from the central forecast. The weights are model judgments and should change when the evidence changes.
| Scenario | Business valueEnterprise value | Value for shareholdersEquity value | Estimated value per share | Weight in blended result | What has to happen | Main risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delayed commercialization and financing stress | $0.00m | $40.47m | $0.23 | 25% |
|
|
| Phased portfolio commercialization | $179m | $250m | $2.05 | 55% |
|
|
| Premium Western economics and broader portfolio execution | $1,001m | $1,072m | $9.62 | 20% |
|
|
Inputs behind the result
Start with inputs marked low confidence. Those are the assumptions most likely to need more evidence and can be more important than the final headline number. Each row shows whether the value is a fact, company statement, analyst estimate, model assumption, or inference.
| Input | Value used | Case | Evidence type | Where it came from | Information date | Confidence | Why it matters or what remains uncertain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reference share price | 2.91 CAD/share | All | Fact | TMX August 21 reference | Aug 22, 2026 | High | Used only for market comparison and reverse SOTP. |
| USD/CAD | 1.376 CAD per USD | All | Fact | Bank of Canada | Aug 22, 2026 | High | Translates USD component values into CAD common equity. |
| Modeled pro forma net cash | 70.0019 CAD millions | All | Analyst Estimate | Q1 plus August financing bridge | Aug 22, 2026 | Low | Includes an explicit interim cash-use reserve. |
| Base Louisiana contribution spread | 18 USD/kg processed TREO | Base | Model Assumption | Ephesus Base assumption | Aug 22, 2026 | Low | Realized product value less feedstock payable and direct processing cost. |
| Louisiana gross modeled capital | 215 USD millions | Base | Analyst Estimate | Disclosed initial program plus later-line estimates | Aug 22, 2026 | Low | US$40 million for each of Lines 2 and 3 is analytical. |
| Louisiana Base WACC | 16.5 % | Base | Model Assumption | Ephesus risk framework | Aug 22, 2026 | Low | Reflects pre-revenue scale-up, financing and terminal-value risk. |
| Canadian Sm/Gd Base case | 400 tpa; US$45m capex; 50% execution risked module | Base | Model Assumption | Conditional support plus Ephesus assumptions | Aug 22, 2026 | Low | No definitive public capacity or full-capital guidance exists. |
| Historical Bokan PEA NPV10 | 577 USD millions | All | Company Guidance | Historical 2013 PEA | Aug 22, 2026 | Medium | Stale pre-tax anchor; Base applies a severe haircut and advancement spending. |
| External RapidSX Base case | US$8m 2031 revenue; 40% execution risked platform module | Base | Model Assumption | Ephesus platform assumptions | Aug 22, 2026 | Low | Excludes self-use economics and lacks binding third-party contracts. |
| Base external funding need | 98.2035 USD millions | Base | Inference | Five-year funding bridge | Aug 22, 2026 | Low | Base assumes 55% non-dilutive funding and 18.7 million new shares. |
Change the assumptions
Each grid changes two assumptions at the same time. Find the row and column matching your view, then read the value where they meet. A wide range of outcomes means the estimate is highly sensitive to those inputs.
Read across or down to choose two assumptions. The value where the row and column meet is the model result under that combination.
Other modules, probabilities and dilution are held constant.
| Change Base Louisiana spread ↓ and Louisiana WACC → | 14.0% | 16.5% | 18.0% | 20.0% | 22.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US$12/kg | 2.58 | 2.53 | 2.5 | 2.47 | 2.44 |
| US$15/kg | 2.91 | 2.82 | 2.77 | 2.72 | 2.67 |
| US$18/kg | 3.23 | 3.11 | 3.04 | 2.96 | 2.89 |
| US$21/kg | 3.55 | 3.39 | 3.31 | 3.21 | 3.12 |
| US$24/kg | 3.87 | 3.68 | 3.58 | 3.46 | 3.35 |
Read across or down to choose two assumptions. The value where the row and column meet is the model result under that combination.
Base external funding need is held at US$98.2 million.
| Change Equity financing price ↓ and Non-dilutive funding share → | 25% | 40% | 55% | 70% | 85% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C$2.00 | 1.72 | 1.81 | 1.91 | 2.03 | 2.16 |
| C$3.25 | 1.9 | 1.97 | 2.05 | 2.13 | 2.21 |
| C$4.00 | 1.97 | 2.03 | 2.09 | 2.16 | 2.23 |
| C$5.00 | 2.03 | 2.08 | 2.13 | 2.18 | 2.24 |
| C$6.00 | 2.07 | 2.11 | 2.16 | 2.2 | 2.25 |
These are not footnotes to ignore. They identify missing evidence, simplified calculations, or events that could make the displayed value incomplete or too high.
Evidence
A source may confirm a reported fact or management plan without proving that the forecast will occur. Open a source card to see what it supports and what remains uncertain.
Ucore Rare Metals Inc. · Aug 20, 2026
Relevant finding
Supports adaptability across materially different qualified intermediate feedstocks, not commercial recovery, uptime, payables or margin.
Review notes
Supports adaptability across materially different qualified intermediate feedstocks, not commercial recovery, uptime, payables or margin.
Ucore Rare Metals Inc. · May 28, 2026
Relevant finding
Supports approximately 9,600 tpa design capacity and the disclosed initial capital framework; later-line capital remains estimated.
Review notes
Supports approximately 9,600 tpa design capacity and the disclosed initial capital framework; later-line capital remains estimated.
Ucore Rare Metals Inc. · Aug 13, 2026
Relevant finding
Supports gross proceeds, issued shares and underwriting fee; post-quarter spending remains estimated.
Review notes
Supports gross proceeds, issued shares and underwriting fee; post-quarter spending remains estimated.
Ucore Rare Metals Inc. · May 29, 2026
Relevant finding
Anchors March 31 cash, debt, liquidity and outstanding securities.
Review notes
Anchors March 31 cash, debt, liquidity and outstanding securities.
Ucore Rare Metals Inc. · Apr 14, 2026
Relevant finding
Supports a current resource basis but not a reserve or current economic study.
Review notes
Supports a current resource basis but not a reserve or current economic study.
Ucore Rare Metals Inc. · Jan 15, 2013
Relevant finding
Provides a stale historical NPV anchor used only after severe risk and timing haircuts.
Review notes
Provides a stale historical NPV anchor used only after severe risk and timing haircuts.
Ucore Rare Metals Inc. · Oct 31, 2025
Relevant finding
Supports up to C$36.3 million of conditional support; capacity, capital and operating economics remain undisclosed.
Review notes
Supports up to C$36.3 million of conditional support; capacity, capital and operating economics remain undisclosed.
Ucore Rare Metals Inc. · Jun 15, 2026
Relevant finding
Supports strategic feedstock and distribution cooperation, not binding feedstock or offtake economics.
Review notes
Supports strategic feedstock and distribution cooperation, not binding feedstock or offtake economics.
Ucore Rare Metals Inc. · May 14, 2025
Relevant finding
Supports US$18.4 million of initial non-repayable construction funding.
Review notes
Supports US$18.4 million of initial non-repayable construction funding.
Ucore Rare Metals Inc. · Aug 21, 2026
Relevant finding
Supports the 1.376 CAD per USD translation.
Review notes
Supports the 1.376 CAD per USD translation.
Ucore Rare Metals Inc. · Aug 21, 2026
Relevant finding
C$2.91 reference used only for market comparison and reverse SOTP.
Review notes
C$2.91 reference used only for market comparison and reverse SOTP.
Revision history
Material updates are recorded so readers can see which assumption or conclusion changed, why it changed, and how the result was affected.
Aug 22, 2026 · Ucore Rare Metals Inc.
Expanded the Louisiana-only draft into a comprehensive five-year corporate SOTP.
Previous
Louisiana operating DCF plus cash and dilution
Revised
Louisiana, Canada, Bokan, external RapidSX, cash, overhead, funding and dilution
Reason
The earlier draft did not represent Ucore's full identifiable portfolio.
Source
Ucore portfolio sources and governed SOTP workbook
Estimated effect
Weighted value rises from approximately C$2.70 to C$3.11; Base remains approximately C$2.05.
Further reading
Ucore Rare Metals
The Louisiana SMC is Ucore's principal operating asset, but it is not the entire portfolio. This five-year SOTP separately values Louisiana, a risked Canadian Sm/Gd SMC, Bokan-Dotson Ridge, external RapidSX optionality, corporate cash and overhead, then models the funding and dilution required to reach commercial scale.
Report a formula error, unsupported assumption, missing source, or unclear explanation. Material corrections are added to the public revision history rather than silently overwritten.