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Ephesus Research turns public filings, project updates, contracts, and financial assumptions into clear investment research and transparent valuation models. Each conclusion shows what is known, what is estimated, and what could change the result.
Everything is free to read. Reader support never buys company coverage, assumptions, or conclusions.
How the project helps
Important claims link back to filings, contracts, company disclosures, and other public sources so you can check them yourself.
See how growth, costs, project timing, financing, and new share issuance can change what an investment may be worth.
Material updates are recorded when new evidence changes an assumption, risk, model result, or conclusion.
The written research explains the company, evidence, and risks. The models show how those facts and assumptions turn into a range of possible values.
Company and project analysis
Industry research
The Big Beautiful Bill changes project economics unevenly. The durable advantage may belong to developers that turn today’s incentives into usable, financeable power.
IREN · NUAI · WULF
This report examines the credit channel linking frontier-model economics to data-center and power-development finance. Version 1.1 adds two explicit circuit breakers: proprietary providers can retain disproportionate monetization after losing token share, and stronger technology balance sheets can substitute for weaker standalone lab credit. The likely near-term result is financing bifurcation rather than uniform contraction.
Models you can inspect and change
IREN · Company and project DCF
This model estimates the cash IREN could generate from operating and planned sites, subtracts construction and hardware-replacement costs, reduces the value of uncertain projects, subtracts net debt, and divides what remains among diluted shares.
Plain-language guide · 17 linked sources
NUAI · Development-site valuation
This model follows each TCDC phase’s cash after operating costs, project debt payments, taxes and reinvestment. It then models how NUAI pays for its ownership, how many new shares are needed, and what existing shareholders could receive under different completion outcomes.
Plain-language guide · 16 linked sources
Material revisions are recorded publicly so you can see what changed, why it changed, and how it affected the analysis.
NUAI
Published the approved v1.5 phase/funding model with v1.5.1 dashboard explanations below its controls, independent retained-interest/PUE/funding choices, exact workbook scenario snapshots and a checksum-verified public Excel download.
Project update
Corrected the published article status to Current and connected all 30 existing references to the evidence map and public source library.
Project update
Reframed the nearer-term outcome as credit migration and financing bifurcation; added explicit monetization and credit-substitution circuit breakers, NVIDIA's OpenAI-related guarantee framework, IREN's 6.0% versus 9.0% financing comparison, and a 12–18 month monitoring cohort.
Readers should be able to check the sources, understand the assumptions, test a different outcome, and see what could make the conclusion wrong. Voluntary support helps fund data, hosting, research time, and model maintenance while the work remains free to read.