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Ephesus Research turns public filings, project updates, contracts, and financial assumptions into clear investment research and transparent valuation models. Each conclusion shows what is known, what is estimated, and what could change the result.
Everything is free to read. Reader support never buys company coverage, assumptions, or conclusions.
How the project helps
Important claims link back to filings, contracts, company disclosures, and other public sources so you can check them yourself.
See how growth, costs, project timing, financing, and new share issuance can change what an investment may be worth.
Material updates are recorded when new evidence changes an assumption, risk, model result, or conclusion.
The written research explains the company, evidence, and risks. The models show how those facts and assumptions turn into a range of possible values.
Company and project analysis
VST · NUAI
Vistra’s 1,180 MW Odessa gas plant is the named source for Luminant’s 200–207 MW TCDC power agreement. A larger commitment could improve returns if its price premium over equivalent alternative sales covers added supply costs, capital recovery and the required return. This seller-side analysis compares the disclosed allocation with the arithmetic remainder, models 400/600/800 MW cases, and shows how a hypothetical $15/MWh premium produces $46.5 million of added annual contribution at 600 MW. Actual contract pricing and expansion availability remain unresolved.
NVDA · GOOGL · IREN · CRWV · CIFR · NBIS
Cheaper intelligence can attract more paid work without guaranteeing more resource consumption or attractive investor returns. This research tests those three propositions separately, using 43 sources, 16 visuals and transparent hypothetical calculations across compute, power, contracts and financing.
Models you can inspect and change
IREN · Company and project DCF
This model estimates the cash IREN could generate from operating and planned sites, subtracts construction and hardware-replacement costs, reduces the value of uncertain projects, subtracts net debt, and divides what remains among diluted shares.
Plain-language guide · 17 linked sources
NUAI · Strategy, tax and retained shareholder value
NUAI TCDC v2.7.1 separates direct-leasing strategy, taxpayer cash, priced financing and retained ownership. Ten captured comparisons distinguish frozen v2.6 references, matched tax cases, re-underwritten financing, timing and policy assumptions. All new financing remains conditional.
Plain-language guide · 43 linked sources
Material revisions are recorded publicly so you can see what changed, why it changed, and how it affected the analysis.
VST / NUAI
Added a seller-perspective article on Vistra's Odessa gas plant, the Luminant TCDC PPA, and hypothetical larger allocations.
NUAI
Published an eight-part investigation of TCDC development, power, cooling, leasing and financing with nine figures and a technical appendix.
NUAI
Published the supporting technical evidence, engineering sensitivities, lease comparisons and financing boundaries for the eight-gate investigation.
Readers should be able to check the sources, understand the assumptions, test a different outcome, and see what could make the conclusion wrong. Voluntary support helps fund data, hosting, research time, and model maintenance while the work remains free to read.