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The public change log shows what changed, the previous and revised values, why the revision was made, its source, materiality, and expected effect on the analytical conclusion.
23 public changes
Sep 3, 2026
Reframed the nearer-term outcome as credit migration and financing bifurcation; added explicit monetization and credit-substitution circuit breakers, NVIDIA's OpenAI-related guarantee framework, IREN's 6.0% versus 9.0% financing comparison, and a 12–18 month monitoring cohort.
Previous
The article emphasized the conditional path from weaker model economics to lab credit and project finance, while treating proprietary monetization and strategic wrappers mainly as counterarguments.
Revised
The framework now treats monetization resilience and investment-grade credit substitution as explicit circuit breakers before project finance tightens.
Reason
External review correctly identified two offsets that were present but underweighted. Current primary disclosures support strategic credit substitution, while available monetization evidence supports a qualified—not global—claim that closed providers can retain disproportionate economics after token-share loss.
Source
NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 Form 10-Q; IREN FY2026 Form 10-K and SEC-filed results; Mozilla State of Open Source AI; Menlo Ventures 2025 enterprise report
Estimated effect
No valuation-model inputs or outputs changed. The industry-credit conclusion shifts from a primarily contagion-oriented framing toward financing bifurcation and upward migration of contingent credit exposure.
Aug 22, 2026 · Ucore Rare Metals Inc.
Expanded the Louisiana-only draft into a comprehensive five-year corporate SOTP.
Previous
Louisiana operating DCF plus cash and dilution
Revised
Louisiana, Canada, Bokan, external RapidSX, cash, overhead, funding and dilution
Reason
The earlier draft did not represent Ucore's full identifiable portfolio.
Source
Ucore portfolio sources and governed SOTP workbook
Estimated effect
Weighted value rises from approximately C$2.70 to C$3.11; Base remains approximately C$2.05.
Aug 12, 2026 · IREN
Added a public GPU-capital-duration and post-contract economics framework reflecting the revised live workbook, including cohort financing, non-core tail cash flows, NVIDIA support and revenue-share sensitivities, and a contribution-per-kW replacement gate.
Previous
The public model showed five-year GPU capital recovery and residual sensitivity but did not separately expose financing duration, explicit Years 6-8 monetization, NVIDIA support, revenue share or power opportunity cost.
Revised
Five-year core life and published stage values remain unchanged; the new sensitivities show how financing relief, residual support, revenue sharing and post-contract monetization interact without double counting.
Reason
The live model and private research ledger were revised after NVIDIA's financing-platform announcement and review of IREN's Microsoft and NVIDIA cohort structures.
Source
IREN live workbook v1.1 GPU Capital Duration update and approved evidence map
Estimated effect
No mechanical change to the $27.08, $38.96 or $66.57 probability-weighted Base stage estimates. The effect is improved interpretation, sensitivity analysis and evidence discipline.
Aug 8, 2026 · SPCX
Published the probability-weighted SOTP as the primary SpaceX valuation, with separate DCFs for Space, Connectivity, AI Infrastructure, and AI Applications plus a milestone-gated Starmind option. Added a 5%-weighted Elon Case, institutional and management-claim audits, vintage-based hardware refresh, corrected dilution, recurring stock-based compensation, normalized terminal taxes, explicit funding warnings, and a common-equity floor for probability weighting.
Previous
Consolidated FCFF DCF with premature annual refresh reserve, raw negative-equity probability weighting, and no separately auditable Elon Case or primary segment SOTP.
Revised
$27.86/share probability-weighted SOTP: Bear $0.00 at 20%, Base $0.00 at 50%, Bull $65.47 at 25%, and Elon Case $229.92 at 5%.
Reason
SpaceX's launch, connectivity, AI infrastructure, application, and orbital-option businesses have different capital intensity, risk, terminal economics, and evidence quality. The repaired framework prevents mature Connectivity value from being obscured by AI cash burn while suppressing invalid terminal value and preserving funding risk.
Source
SpaceX v2.0.1 workbook source audit S01–S52, led by the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and official Q2 transcript
Estimated effect
Changes the primary framework and reader interpretation. The zero-floored expected value is $27.86/share versus the $133.11 reference price; negative raw Bear/Base values remain visible as funding-burden diagnostics, and the Elon Case still requires approximately $177.9 billion of external capital in 2028 after modeled equity issuance.
Aug 7, 2026 · IREN
Made the workbook's hidden model dependencies visible on the public page, including unit capex, corporate costs, maintenance capital, taxes, power-cost treatment, working-capital omission, terminal-value dependence, mining runoff, dilution sensitivity, GPU capital recovery and peer project-yield checks.
Previous
The website exposed selected assumptions and linked the full workbook, but readers had to search separate spreadsheet tabs to understand several material operating and capital assumptions.
Revised
A plain-language IREN audit brief, expanded assumption table, capital-structure and GPU-residual sensitivities, clearer provenance, and stage-scoped interactive calculations.
Reason
External reader feedback correctly identified that the public page did not make the full calculation chain and model limitations easy to find, even though most of the detail existed in the live workbook.
Source
IREN live public workbook and assumption-evidence map
Estimated effect
Does not change the published $27.08, $38.96 or $66.57 stage estimates. It changes interpretation and custom-scenario mechanics by preventing phases outside the selected buildout stage from influencing that stage's interactive result.
Aug 5, 2026 · Pulsar Helium
Replaced the July 10 framework with an integrated, formula-driven Topaz project model covering sustained-well deliverability, resource constraints, installed plant cost, CO2 economics, royalties and taxes, financing, partner economics, dilution, market-implied pricing and automated integrity checks.
Previous
July 10, 2026 workbook with 10 sheets, 227.360 million modeled fully diluted shares and strategic utilization that was not directly capped by sustained-well feed.
Revised
August 5, 2026 workbook with 20 linked sheets, 228.810 million company-reported fully diluted shares, explicit field-supported utilization, full sources-and-uses financing and current preliminary website outputs.
Reason
Post-model financing, warrant and PSU information, the plant reservation, updated technical disclosures and the need to separate peak flow tests from sustained commercial deliverability materially changed the appropriate valuation architecture.
Source
Pulsar stock information, July financing disclosures, plant reservation and Topaz technical updates
Estimated effect
Reduces the Base fully funded value to approximately C$0.19 per share, exposes an estimated US$51.3 million Base equity gap and shows that the current enterprise value requires materially stronger netback, resource, utilization, capex or option-value assumptions than the Base case.
Aug 4, 2026 · NUAI
Replaced the website's demonstration NUAI model presentation with the current Google Drive workbook structure, including development-state values, phase-level economics, direct ownership assumptions, debt sizing, power-SPV separation, and assumption-level source links.
Previous
0.6.0-sample illustrative placeholder model
Revised
1.0.0-preliminary current source-backed model mapping
Reason
The live NUAI workbook now contains current phase-level assumptions, source notes, model checks, and an assumption-evidence tab. The website should reflect that model rather than the original placeholder scaffold.
Source
SEC-filed Q1 2026 business update and live NUAI Google Sheet
Estimated effect
Changes the public model status, source linkage, phase economics, per-share scenario outputs, and limitations. It does not eliminate uncertainty around leases, power, financing, ownership, permits, or dilution.
Aug 4, 2026
Added revision-log tabs to the live NUAI and IREN Google Sheets and created full baseline archive copies before making public-model status changes.
Previous
Drive workbooks linked publicly without in-workbook revision tabs
Revised
Revision tabs plus full baseline copies in the Ephesus Research Model Archive folder
Reason
Future users need historical context for material formula, source, status, and website-synchronization changes.
Source
Google Drive model archive and revision tabs
Estimated effect
Improves auditability and historical context without changing IREN valuation assumptions in the first revision-infrastructure pass.
Aug 4, 2026 · IREN
Replaced the website's IREN demonstration scaffold with the current Google Drive site-level cohort-cash DCF, official capacity milestones, probability-weighted buildout stages, source-backed contract and financing anchors, community-model reconciliation, and assumption-level evidence mapping.
Previous
0.9.0-sample illustrative placeholder model
Revised
1.0.0-preliminary current source-backed model mapping
Reason
The live workbook contains a current stage-level DCF, site and GPU inputs, official-pipeline classifications, capital-structure assumptions, source notes, 27 passing model checks, a revision log, and an assumption-evidence tab.
Source
IREN Q3 FY26 buildout update and live IREN Google Sheet
Estimated effect
Changes the public model status, stage estimates, assumptions, buildout schedule, sensitivities, source coverage, limitations, interactive controls, and article interpretation. Later-stage values remain conditional and probability-weighted.
Aug 3, 2026 · IREN
Replaced the IREN placeholder source map with reviewed primary filings, SEC-filed company materials, and secondary research from the project's private IREN research archive.
Previous
Three illustrative placeholder records
Revised
Four reviewed records with exact public originals and source-quality notes
Reason
The public source library should distinguish filed facts and company guidance from independent interpretation and community modeling.
Source
Private IREN research-archive review and public-original verification
Estimated effect
No direct change to the illustrative valuation outputs; materially improves auditability and identifies evidence that should be incorporated in a future model rebuild.
Aug 3, 2026 · NUAI
Replaced the NUAI placeholder source map with reviewed SEC filings, company materials, the Agrippa deep dive, and the Northland company update from the project's private NUAI research archive.
Previous
Three illustrative placeholder records
Revised
Four reviewed company-specific records with exact public originals or explicit access limitations
Reason
The source map should separate primary evidence, company guidance, independent analysis, and conflicted sell-side research.
Source
Private NUAI research-archive review and public-original verification
Estimated effect
No direct change to the illustrative valuation outputs; improves auditability and makes the Northland conflicts and secondary-source limitations visible.
Aug 2, 2026 · IREN
Moved illustrative AI Phase 2 energization six months later.
Previous
2028-H1
Revised
2028-H2
Reason
Demonstrates how schedule uncertainty should flow through discounting, revenue ramp, and financing needs.
Source
Sample methodology change; no company disclosure implied
Estimated effect
Reduced illustrative base-case value per share by approximately 6%.
Aug 2, 2026 · IREN
Raised illustrative AI construction and equipment capex.
Previous
$6.4 billion across sample AI phases
Revised
$7.4 billion across sample AI phases
Reason
Shows the effect of higher equipment, cooling, electrical, and construction costs.
Source
Illustrative stress test
Estimated effect
Reduced equity value and increased modeled financing dilution.
Aug 2, 2026
Raised the illustrative base discount rate by 100 basis points.
Previous
10.5%
Revised
11.5%
Reason
Demonstrates duration sensitivity when long-end yields and financing spreads rise.
Source
U.S. Treasury market-data framework; values remain illustrative
Estimated effect
Lowered long-duration asset value, with the largest effect on later phases and terminal value.
Aug 2, 2026 · IREN
Reduced the base terminal EBITDA multiple.
Previous
11.0x
Revised
10.0x
Reason
Demonstrates multiple-compression risk when required returns rise or durability is less certain.
Source
Illustrative terminal-value sensitivity
Estimated effect
Reduced base-case value and the share of value attributable to terminal cash flow.
Jul 30, 2026 · NUAI
Changed Phase 1 funding from fully committed debt to milestone-dependent project debt.
Previous
Debt assumed fully available
Revised
Debt available only after executed lease and lender conditions
Reason
The funding path should distinguish announced capacity from legally committed capital.
Source
New Era Energy & Digital Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and related facility disclosures
Estimated effect
Lowered completion probability and increased potential parent-level dilution.
Jul 28, 2026 · NUAI
Corrected ownership weighting in the Phase 2 risk-adjusted value formula.
Previous
Ownership applied after per-share conversion
Revised
Ownership applied before equity-value conversion
Reason
Prevents double counting of gross project value.
Source
Internal formula review
Estimated effect
Reduced Phase 2 value per share in the sample output.
Jul 26, 2026
Added exact series and retrieval-date fields to the EIA source record.
Previous
Generic EIA reference
Revised
Series-level reference required
Reason
Readers must be able to reproduce the underlying observation.
Source
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Estimated effect
No valuation change; improved auditability.
Jul 24, 2026
Added separate source records for each peer rather than relying on presentation summaries.
Previous
One aggregated peer table
Revised
Company-level filing and presentation mapping
Reason
Peer comparisons require consistent definitions of gross MW, usable IT MW, ownership, capex, and contracted capacity.
Source
Sample source-library expansion
Estimated effect
Reduced false precision in the comparative ranking.
Jul 22, 2026 · APLD
Added construction-period interest and unused-capital carry.
Previous
Financing cost began at revenue start
Revised
Financing cost begins as capital is drawn
Reason
Construction funding creates negative carry before the asset produces NOI.
Source
Sample filing placeholder
Estimated effect
Reduced project IRR and increased required stabilized NOI.
Jul 20, 2026
Introduced explicit labels for fact, guidance, estimate, assumption, inference, and speculation.
Reason
Readers should be able to distinguish evidence from judgment at the point of use.
Source
Editorial policy
Estimated effect
No model-value change; improved interpretability.
Jul 18, 2026
Added verification status and relevant page-number fields.
Reason
Makes source review faster and reduces ambiguous citations.
Source
Editorial workflow update
Estimated effect
No analytical effect.