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NUAI · Data centers and behind-the-meter power
This model estimates the income each TCDC phase could produce, converts stabilized income into a project value, adjusts for NUAI's ownership and the chance that each phase is completed, subtracts net debt, and divides the result among diluted shares.
Base-case value estimate
US$5.62
Based on the conditions listed in “Phase 1 signed + later options.”
Blended scenario result
US$5.76
This combines the displayed scenarios using the model weights. The weights are judgment calls, not statistical guarantees.
This model estimates the income each TCDC phase could produce, converts stabilized income into a project value, adjusts for NUAI's ownership and the chance that each phase is completed, subtracts net debt, and divides the result among diluted shares.
What could NUAI's ownership in TCDC be worth if one or more phases are financed, built, and leased?
This is not a conventional company-wide DCF. NUAI is still developing the campus, so the model focuses on individual phases, lease timing, construction funding, ownership, completion probabilities, and possible share dilution. Stabilized phases are valued using NOI and cap rates.
The value per share shows what the modeled project interest could be worth under each development outcome. Uncontracted or unfunded capacity does not receive full value today.
A DCF estimates present value from future cash flows. This page may also use project probabilities, cap rates, net asset value, or sum-of-the-parts methods where they fit the asset better. The model type is shown above and explained here before the detailed tables.
Use these sections in order or jump directly to the part you need. The plain-language explanation comes first; the detailed assumptions, formulas, sources, and change log remain available underneath it.
Use the spreadsheet to inspect formulas or change assumptions. JSON and CSV versions are available for structured review and data reuse.
Model overview
Main question
What could NUAI's ownership in TCDC be worth if one or more phases are financed, built, and leased?
Technical approach
Site-level economics and probability-adjusted NAV
Company or asset
NUAI
Estimate date
Aug 4, 2026
Years modeled
2028–2032 phase starts plus long-duration lease cash flow
Currency
USD
Diluted shares used
123 million
Net debt / (cash) used
US$35.00 million
Research status
Current preliminary source-backed model
Model author
Ephesus Research
Last updated
Aug 4, 2026
Linked sources
7 records
Version
1.0.0-preliminary
3 possible outcomes
The base case is the central set of assumptions, not a guaranteed result. Compare every named scenario to see how delays, weaker economics, stronger execution, financing, or other major changes affect the estimate. Any edge case is deliberately kept separate from the central forecast. The weights are model judgments and should change when the evidence changes.
| Scenario | Business valueEnterprise value | Value for shareholdersEquity value | Estimated value per share | Weight in blended result | What has to happen | Main risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current platform | US$444m | US$444m | US$3.61 | 30% |
|
|
| Phase 1 signed + later options | US$691m | US$691m | US$5.62 | 50% |
|
|
| Full 1.4 GW execution | US$1,148m | US$1,148m | US$9.33 | 20% |
|
|
Project timing
A large announced power figure is not the same as usable capacity or current revenue. This table separates total power, computing load, timing, build cost, ownership, and the chance that each phase is completed.
| Site and phase | Total power | Usable computing power | Power ready | Revenue could begin | Expected use | Annual revenue per MW | Operating margin | Build cost | How it may be funded | Company ownership | Chance of completion | Value after risk adjustment | Estimated value per share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCDCPhase 1 | 200 MW | 190 MW | 2028 | 2028 | 90% | US$1.80m | 72% | US$2,138m | Adjacent generation / existing POI; data-center SPV; base case 75% debt cap constrained by DSCR; 25% direct NUAI economic share; no direct power-SPV share. | 25% | 55% | US$173m | US$1.41 |
| TCDCPhase 2 | 450 MW | 427.5 MW | 2030 | 2030 | 88% | US$1.80m | 70% | US$4,809m | 450 MW BTM via Thunderhead / Turbine-X; separate power-SPV economics; base case 18% direct data-center share and 8% retained power-SPV share. | 18% | 45% | US$200m | US$1.63 |
| TCDCPhase 3 | 750 MW | 712.5 MW | 2032 | 2032 | 80% | US$1.80m | 68% | US$8,016m | Additional BTM plus bidirectional grid; later-stage expansion; base case 12% direct data-center share and 5% retained power-SPV share. | 12% | 25% | US$106m | US$0.86 |
Inputs behind the result
Start with inputs marked low confidence. Those are the assumptions most likely to need more evidence and can be more important than the final headline number. Each row shows whether the value is a fact, company statement, analyst estimate, model assumption, or inference.
| Input | Value used | Case | Evidence type | Where it came from | Information date | Confidence | Why it matters or what remains uncertain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCDC phase plan and total nameplate scale | 200 MW Phase 1, 450 MW Phase 2, 750 MW Phase 3; 1.4 GW total MW | Base | Company Guidance | SEC-filed Q1 2026 business update | Aug 4, 2026 | High | High confidence for the disclosed company plan; low confidence for final lease, permits, financing, construction, and distributable economics. |
| Critical IT capacity conversion | 190 / 427.5 / 712.5 critical MW by phase | Base | Model Assumption | SEC-filed phase plan plus model conversion | Aug 4, 2026 | Medium | The live workbook maps the 1.4 GW nameplate plan to 1.33 GW critical MW; final usable load depends on redundancy, cooling, auxiliary load, and tenant design. |
| Phase 2 behind-the-meter power architecture | 450 MW BTM plan MW | Base | Company Guidance | New Era 450 MW BTM announcement | Aug 4, 2026 | Medium | Supports separating data-center SPV value from power-SPV value; definitive purchase documents, fuel, permits, and retained economics remain unverified. |
| Starting lease revenue per critical MW-year | 1.8 USD millions/MW-year | Base | Analyst Estimate | WULF / Anthropic lease benchmark | Aug 4, 2026 | Low | Comparable lease economics are used only to calibrate a range; they do not establish NUAI-specific rent, term, escalators, credit support, pass-throughs, or remedies. |
| Landlord-funded data-center capex per critical MW | 11.25 USD millions/MW | Base | Model Assumption | Live workbook capex assumption | Aug 4, 2026 | Low | Derived from $15.0mm gross capex per critical MW and 25% tenant/direct funding. Actual EPC scope, tenant funding, contingency, and overruns are not disclosed. |
| Power recovery / pass-through | 98.5 % | Base | Model Assumption | Live workbook power-cost assumption | Aug 4, 2026 | Low | Base case assumes most energy cost is reimbursed or indexed. Executed lease language and actual power/fuel economics remain required before upgrading confidence. |
| Project debt sizing constraints | 75% LTC, 1.40x minimum DSCR, 8.25% coupon base case | Base | Model Assumption | NUAI filing and workbook financing assumptions | Aug 4, 2026 | Low | Debt is constrained rather than assumed fully available. Binding debt commitments, collateral, guarantees, reserves, covenants, and draw conditions are still required. |
| Direct NUAI data-center economic share | 25% / 18% / 12% Phase 1 / Phase 2 / Phase 3 base case | Base | Inference | Private archive economics synthesis and GP/LP disclosure | Aug 4, 2026 | Low | This is one of the most important model inputs. It remains an explicit assumption until final ownership, waterfall, preferred return, catch-up, GP split, and asset-sale rights are disclosed. |
| Current execution probabilities | 55% / 45% / 25% Phase 1 / Phase 2 / Phase 3 base case | Base | Inference | Project-stage risk framework | Aug 4, 2026 | Low | Probabilities should rise only with evidence for customer, financing, power, permits, construction, and revenue commencement. |
| Sponsor promote economics | 12% promote, 8% LP hurdle, 50% NUAI share of GP promote pool base case | Base | Model Assumption | Live workbook promote assumption | Aug 4, 2026 | Low | Promote value remains separated from no-promote valuation because preferred return, catch-up, fee offset, and distribution tiers are not disclosed. |
| Diluted share count | 123 millions | Base | Model Assumption | Filing context and scenario share-count model | Aug 4, 2026 | Low | The denominator must be reconciled to current basic shares, warrants, options, RSUs, converts, ATM or equity-facility issuance, and financing dilution before any final publication. |
| HoldCo bridge | -35 USD millions | Base | Model Assumption | Filing context and live workbook bridge | Aug 4, 2026 | Low | Adjusts for cash, overhead, Macquarie friction, legacy assets, and dilution reserve. It remains a bridge item until latest cash, debt, fees, and post-quarter financing are reconciled. |
Change the assumptions
Each grid changes two assumptions at the same time. Find the row and column matching your view, then read the value where they meet. A wide range of outcomes means the estimate is highly sensitive to those inputs.
Read across or down to choose two assumptions. The value where the row and column meet is the model result under that combination.
No-promote outputs from the live Google Drive workbook. A dash in the workbook is represented as zero for machine-readable display.
#development-state-scenarios-sensitivity| Change Development state ↓ and Scenario case → | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current probability-weighted platform | 0 | 3.61 | 27.86 |
| Phase 1 signed + later options | 0.12 | 5.62 | 35.29 |
| Full 1.4 GW execution | 0.83 | 9.33 | 43.71 |
Read across or down to choose two assumptions. The value where the row and column meet is the model result under that combination.
Promote value remains an upside case because the final preferred return, catch-up, GP split and distribution waterfall have not been disclosed.
#promote-impact-sensitivity| Change Development state ↓ and Sponsor economics → | No promote | With promote |
|---|---|---|
| Current probability-weighted platform | 3.61 | 4.96 |
| Phase 1 signed + later options | 5.62 | 7.67 |
| Full 1.4 GW execution | 9.33 | 12.93 |
Read across or down to choose two assumptions. The value where the row and column meet is the model result under that combination.
Illustrative interpolation around the live workbook's phase-probability and diluted-share controls; use the Google Sheet for exact formula-backed outputs.
#completion-probability-dilution-sensitivity| Change Weighted completion probability ↓ and Diluted shares → | 95 | 110 | 123 | 140 | 160 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | 4.6 | 4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| 40% | 5.7 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.4 |
| 50% | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4 |
| 60% | 7.9 | 6.8 | 6 | 5.3 | 4.7 |
| 70% | 9 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 6 | 5.3 |
Interactive audit tool
Change the major valuation inputs below. Every state is written into the page URL, so a reader or AI system can link directly to the exact scenario rather than citing a generic model page.
Published scenario anchor
Choose the published scenario used as the starting point for the adjustable controls.
Custom value per share
US$5.33
-US$0.29 versus the selected published scenario
Implied enterprise value
US$691m
Published anchor: US$691m
Implied equity value
US$656m
Adjusted net debt: US$35.00m
Funding mix
75% debt
25% equity; diluted shares are controlled separately
Calculation bridge
These relative factors show how the custom controls move the selected published scenario. A factor above 1.00 increases the modeled value component; below 1.00 reduces it.
Execution
1.00x
Unit economics
1.00x
Terminal value
1.00x
Required return
1.00x
Delay
1.00x
Changes the present-value factor applied across the configured valuation duration.
Adjusts the residual or stabilized-value portion of the selected scenario.
USD millions/critical MW-year
Applied with unit economics to the execution-weighted project portion of value.
Discounts the selected scenario for the additional time before value realization.
25% equity funding at the current setting. Share issuance is modeled separately.
Each probability changes only the execution-weighted project portion of the selected scenario. Operating phases are fixed at 100%.
Aggregate factor: 1x
Phase 1
TCDC · 190 usable MW
Published probability: 55%
Phase 2
TCDC · 427.5 usable MW
Published probability: 45%
Phase 3
TCDC · 712.5 usable MW
Published probability: 25%
Calibration: 85% execution-linked value, 15% residual value, 5-year required-return duration, and US$924m of risk-weighted, ownership-adjusted construction capex included in the selected stage.
The interactive output is a conditional audit aid, not a prediction, recommendation, or claim of current market value. Use the source map, assumptions, limitations, and downloadable spreadsheet before relying on any result.
These are not footnotes to ignore. They identify missing evidence, simplified calculations, or events that could make the displayed value incomplete or too high.
Evidence
A source may confirm a reported fact or management plan without proving that the forecast will occur. Open a source card to see what it supports and what remains uncertain.
NUAI · May 15, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Provides the primary record for NUAI's quarter-end financial position, capital structure, liquidity, obligations, ownership disclosures, and project-financing risk.
Review notes
Primary financial source for the March 2026 quarter. Use with subsequent 8-K exhibits for post-quarter financing and project updates; the filed legal-entity, liquidity, debt, equity, and share data control over secondary estimates.
Relevant pages: Unaudited financial statements; liquidity and capital resources; debt and equity notes; commitments; subsequent events; risk factors.
NUAI · May 18, 2026 · Texas
Relevant finding
Describes TCDC's 200 MW Phase 1, planned 450 MW behind-the-meter Phase 2 and 750 MW Phase 3, the path toward 1.4 GW, the Macquarie facility, the proposed GP/LP structure, and current permitting and commercial priorities.
Review notes
Company-furnished and forward-looking. Treat phase capacity, turbine procurement, adjacent-generation access, tenant discussions, project leverage, and timing as company guidance until supported by binding contracts, permits, lender commitments, and construction evidence.
Relevant pages: Slides 3-9 for funding, counterparties, TCDC phasing and near-term workstreams; slide 11 for capitalization; slides 15-16 for campus pipeline and proposed SPV structure.
NUAI · Jul 5, 2026 · Texas
Relevant finding
Synthesizes TCDC's phased 1.4 GW plan, partner ecosystem, Phase 1 power question, behind-the-meter expansion, Macquarie timing, land contribution, GP/LP waterfall economics, construction financing, and execution risks.
Review notes
A 143-page secondary deep dive reviewed from the project's private NUAI research archive. It synthesizes filings, company materials, calls, counterparties, project economics, and author estimates. Independently verify every material claim and scenario input; do not treat the report as a substitute for primary evidence.
Relevant pages: Pages 13-14 for company and site overview; 19-36 for TCDC, partners and power; 46-52 for incentives and lease timing; 56-126 for JV and waterfall economics; 136-138 for the pipeline and New Mexico optionality.
NUAI · May 26, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Provides institutional analyst color on TCDC's development path and adjacent-generation thesis while emphasizing construction, capital-intensity, financing, macroeconomic, counterparty, and legacy-asset risks.
Review notes
Institutional report supplied through the project's private NUAI research archive; a direct public report URL was not confirmed. Northland disclosed market-making, prior investment-banking compensation, a client relationship, management of a securities offering, and an intention to seek investment-banking compensation from NUAI. Treat company-specific conclusions and valuation as conflicted secondary research.
Relevant pages: Pages 1-5 for company analysis and risk discussion; pages 5-8 for analyst certification and conflicts disclosures.
Jul 31, 2026 · Texas
Relevant finding
Primary-source portal for Texas grid conditions and interconnection evidence.
Review notes
Use exact queue, load, generation, and market reports with retrieval dates.
NUAI · Feb 27, 2026 · Texas
Relevant finding
Supports a 450 MW behind-the-meter generation plan for TCDC and explains why the model does not charge the full generation capex to NUAI parent by default.
Review notes
Company announcement used to support the model's Phase 2 behind-the-meter power architecture and the separation of data-center SPV economics from power-SPV economics. Definitive purchase documentation, fuel, permits, PPA/lease terms, and retained economics remain unverified.
Relevant pages: Announcement text describing Thunderhead, Turbine-X, major generation equipment access, procurement activities, and definitive documentation still to be finalized.
WULF · Jul 6, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Provides an outside reference point for long-duration AI infrastructure lease revenue per critical MW-year and customer-credit framing.
Review notes
External AI/HPC lease benchmark only. The WULF economics do not establish NUAI tenant rent, credit support, pass-throughs, or ownership economics.
Relevant pages: Announcement sections describing the Anthropic 20-year lease, approximately 401 MW of critical IT load, approximately $19 billion of expected contracted lease revenue, and phased delivery timing.
Revision history
Material updates are recorded so readers can see which assumption or conclusion changed, why it changed, and how the result was affected.
Aug 3, 2026 · NUAI
Replaced the NUAI placeholder source map with reviewed SEC filings, company materials, the Agrippa deep dive, and the Northland company update from the project's private NUAI research archive.
Previous
Three illustrative placeholder records
Revised
Four reviewed company-specific records with exact public originals or explicit access limitations
Reason
The source map should separate primary evidence, company guidance, independent analysis, and conflicted sell-side research.
Source
Private NUAI research-archive review and public-original verification
Estimated effect
No direct change to the illustrative valuation outputs; improves auditability and makes the Northland conflicts and secondary-source limitations visible.
Jul 30, 2026 · NUAI
Changed Phase 1 funding from fully committed debt to milestone-dependent project debt.
Previous
Debt assumed fully available
Revised
Debt available only after executed lease and lender conditions
Reason
The funding path should distinguish announced capacity from legally committed capital.
Source
New Era Energy & Digital Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and related facility disclosures
Estimated effect
Lowered completion probability and increased potential parent-level dilution.
Jul 28, 2026 · NUAI
Corrected ownership weighting in the Phase 2 risk-adjusted value formula.
Previous
Ownership applied after per-share conversion
Revised
Ownership applied before equity-value conversion
Reason
Prevents double counting of gross project value.
Source
Internal formula review
Estimated effect
Reduced Phase 2 value per share in the sample output.
Aug 4, 2026 · NUAI
Replaced the website's demonstration NUAI model presentation with the current Google Drive workbook structure, including development-state values, phase-level economics, direct ownership assumptions, debt sizing, power-SPV separation, and assumption-level source links.
Previous
0.6.0-sample illustrative placeholder model
Revised
1.0.0-preliminary current source-backed model mapping
Reason
The live NUAI workbook now contains current phase-level assumptions, source notes, model checks, and an assumption-evidence tab. The website should reflect that model rather than the original placeholder scaffold.
Source
SEC-filed Q1 2026 business update and live NUAI Google Sheet
Estimated effect
Changes the public model status, source linkage, phase economics, per-share scenario outputs, and limitations. It does not eliminate uncertainty around leases, power, financing, ownership, permits, or dilution.
Further reading
NUAI
A current preliminary TCDC model, mapped to the live Google Drive workbook, showing why nameplate capacity, tenant obligations, project financing, ownership, promote economics, and dilution must be modeled separately.
APLD · IREN · WULF · CIFR · NUAI
A practical framework for modeling capital draws, construction-period interest, contingencies, completion support, and dilution before stabilization.
IREN · NUAI · WULF · CIFR · APLD
A six-gate framework for assigning different present values to operating, contracted, funded, permitted, and conceptual capacity.
Report a formula error, unsupported assumption, missing source, or unclear explanation. Material corrections are added to the public revision history rather than silently overwritten.