IREN · NUAI · WULF · CIFR · APLD
Probability-Adjusting Undeveloped Power Capacity
A disciplined way to recognize scarce-site option value without treating every future megawatt as operating infrastructure.
Thesis
A six-gate framework for assigning different present values to operating, contracted, funded, permitted, and conceptual capacity.
Key chart
| Stage | Illustrative evidence | Typical valuation treatment |
|---|---|---|
| Operating | Metered load and revenue | DCF / stabilized asset value |
| Contracted and funded | Executed obligations | High-probability phase DCF |
| Permitted, unfunded | Physical path but no capital | Discounted option value |
| Conceptual | Site claim or pipeline | Low-probability option value |
The argument
Use six gates: site control, power, permit, customer, financing, and construction. Assign a probability based on evidence for each gate and update it when the evidence changes.
Model AssumptionA phase-completion probability is a judgmental model input, not an observed fact. InferencePassing independent execution gates generally supports assigning more present credit to a phase, while unresolved gates justify a wider valuation range.Key findings
- Probability should be phase-specific.
- Completion gates should be evidence-based.
- Discount rate and completion probability address different risks.
- Shared infrastructure can increase later-phase probability.
- Strategic scarcity can be represented through option value or a lower required return when supported.
Counterarguments
Multiplying several subjective probabilities can create false conservatism. A strategic buyer may value control of a full campus even if individual phases are not yet funded.
The response is to show both phase completion value and strategic option value rather than hiding either.
Risks
Correlated failures, changing scope, ownership dilution, and double counting are common.
Catalysts
A binding customer, power contract, permit, lender commitment, and notice to proceed each reduce a different uncertainty.
Scenario analysis
Valuation analysis
Probability-adjust the net project value after ownership and required capital, then discount from the expected cash-flow dates. Do not multiply a gross stabilized asset number by a probability before subtracting capex and financing claims.
Assumptions
Document each gate, source, confidence, and rationale. Avoid probabilities chosen to reverse-engineer a target.
Methodology
The project's model pages expose phase probability alongside capex, ownership, financing, and per-share value.
Disconfirming evidence
Evidence of a binding whole-campus transaction may justify more value than a phase-only framework. Evidence that site control, fuel, or interconnection is weaker than represented justifies less.
What would change the conclusion
New primary-source evidence at a specific gate should change the probability and the change log should show the previous and revised value.
Audit this conclusion
The conclusion can be summarized elsewhere. The full Ephesus Research page remains the place to inspect the calculation, evidence, sensitivities, revisions, and contrary evidence behind it.
Change the valuation assumptions
Adjust the discount rate, stabilized multiple, utilization, unit economics, funding mix, share count, delays, and completion probabilities.
Open exact sectionInspect every material assumption
Review evidence type, source label, date, confidence rating, and the note attached to each model input.
Open exact sectionCompare execution paths
Move between bear, base, and bull conditions, then inspect the phase-by-phase buildout schedule.
Open exact sectionStress-test the valuation
Open the complete sensitivity matrices for discount rates, terminal values, unit economics, delays, dilution, and execution risk.
Open exact sectionReview what changed
Open the dated revision record rather than relying on an undated excerpt or an older model output.
Open exact sectionDownload the underlying model
Open the public spreadsheet or machine-readable JSON and CSV representations for independent review.
Open exact sectionTest the conclusion against contrary evidence
Read the facts, limitations, and developments that would weaken, invalidate, or materially change the stated conclusion.
Open exact sectionTrace the evidence to its sources
Follow the source map to filings, company disclosures, contracts, permits, and other cited records.
Open exact sectionEvidence guide
Evidence and judgment labels
Statements marked Fact are intended to be directly supported by cited evidence. Guidance, estimates, assumptions, inferences, and speculation remain separately named so they are not mistaken for verified facts.
4
mapped sources
Yes
primary support
Related spreadsheets
Audit the linked model
IREN · AI infrastructure and digital assets
IREN Five-Year DCF and Buildout Model
This model estimates the cash IREN could generate from operating and planned sites, subtracts construction and hardware-replacement costs, reduces the value of uncertain projects, subtracts net debt, and divides what remains among diluted shares.
Question this model answers
What could one IREN share be worth at different stages of its AI and Bitcoin-mining buildout?
Base estimate per share
US$38.96
Outcomes shown
3
NUAI · Data centers and behind-the-meter power
NUAI TCDC Site Economics and Tenant Scenario Model
This model estimates the income each TCDC phase could produce, converts stabilized income into a project value, adjusts for NUAI's ownership and the chance that each phase is completed, subtracts net debt, and divides the result among diluted shares.
Question this model answers
What could NUAI's ownership in TCDC be worth if one or more phases are financed, built, and leased?
Base estimate per share
US$5.62
Outcomes shown
3
Evidence map
Mapped public sources
New Era Energy & Digital Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026
NUAI · May 15, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Provides the primary record for NUAI's quarter-end financial position, capital structure, liquidity, obligations, ownership disclosures, and project-financing risk.
Review notes
Primary financial source for the March 2026 quarter. Use with subsequent 8-K exhibits for post-quarter financing and project updates; the filed legal-entity, liquidity, debt, equity, and share data control over secondary estimates.
Relevant pages: Unaudited financial statements; liquidity and capital resources; debt and equity notes; commitments; subsequent events; risk factors.
First Quarter 2026 Business Update — Advancing TCDC Toward Commercialization
NUAI · May 18, 2026 · Texas
Relevant finding
Describes TCDC's 200 MW Phase 1, planned 450 MW behind-the-meter Phase 2 and 750 MW Phase 3, the path toward 1.4 GW, the Macquarie facility, the proposed GP/LP structure, and current permitting and commercial priorities.
Review notes
Company-furnished and forward-looking. Treat phase capacity, turbine procurement, adjacent-generation access, tenant discussions, project leverage, and timing as company guidance until supported by binding contracts, permits, lender commitments, and construction evidence.
Relevant pages: Slides 3-9 for funding, counterparties, TCDC phasing and near-term workstreams; slide 11 for capitalization; slides 15-16 for campus pipeline and proposed SPV structure.
NUAI: A New Era of Compute
NUAI · Jul 5, 2026 · Texas
Relevant finding
Synthesizes TCDC's phased 1.4 GW plan, partner ecosystem, Phase 1 power question, behind-the-meter expansion, Macquarie timing, land contribution, GP/LP waterfall economics, construction financing, and execution risks.
Review notes
A 143-page secondary deep dive reviewed from the project's private NUAI research archive. It synthesizes filings, company materials, calls, counterparties, project economics, and author estimates. Independently verify every material claim and scenario input; do not treat the report as a substitute for primary evidence.
Relevant pages: Pages 13-14 for company and site overview; 19-36 for TCDC, partners and power; 46-52 for incentives and lease timing; 56-126 for JV and waterfall economics; 136-138 for the pipeline and New Mexico optionality.
New Era Energy & Digital — Company Update
NUAI · May 26, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Provides institutional analyst color on TCDC's development path and adjacent-generation thesis while emphasizing construction, capital-intensity, financing, macroeconomic, counterparty, and legacy-asset risks.
Review notes
Institutional report supplied through the project's private NUAI research archive; a direct public report URL was not confirmed. Northland disclosed market-making, prior investment-banking compensation, a client relationship, management of a securities offering, and an intention to seek investment-banking compensation from NUAI. Treat company-specific conclusions and valuation as conflicted secondary research.
Relevant pages: Pages 1-5 for company analysis and risk discussion; pages 5-8 for analyst certification and conflicts disclosures.
New Era Energy & Digital 450 MW behind-the-meter generation announcement
NUAI · Feb 27, 2026 · Texas
Relevant finding
Supports a 450 MW behind-the-meter generation plan for TCDC and explains why the model does not charge the full generation capex to NUAI parent by default.
Review notes
Company announcement used to support the model's Phase 2 behind-the-meter power architecture and the separation of data-center SPV economics from power-SPV economics. Definitive purchase documentation, fuel, permits, PPA/lease terms, and retained economics remain unverified.
Relevant pages: Announcement text describing Thunderhead, Turbine-X, major generation equipment access, procurement activities, and definitive documentation still to be finalized.
Version control
Article change log
Research status
Research status
Current
Conclusion
Neutral
Version
1.0.0
Last reviewed
Aug 2, 2026
Access
Public and free
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Challenge a fact, formula, or interpretation.
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