New Era Energy & Digital · TCDC
What can TCDC and NUAI borrow against, when can the money arrive, and how much value reaches existing shareholders?
Holding operating economics fixed, v2.6 separates verified liquidity, conditional debt capacity and value retained by original shareholders. The browser compares validated captures. Download the editable workbook to change assumptions and recalculate the model.
No verified executable project package
Existing Macquarie borrowing and the initial LC collateral are distinct from new project commitments. Current unrestricted cash and amended bridge obligations cannot be fully reconciled; a current-company valuation is unavailable.
$2.4146
Retained value per original share at the analysis cutoff
The selected structure assumes priced outside capital, public issuance, LC replacement, lender consents and a later project-interest sale. It passes modeled economics; execution remains unverified. The gain over the corresponding D case without the sale is approximately $0.0041 per original share.
Broader eligible uses can increase debt, but debt-service coverage constrains the result. Eighty percent of the old Phase 2 eligible denominator funds about 72% of all-in uses. The prior 25% initial LC cash margin was too optimistic against the executed 102% arrangement.
Maximum leverage and minimum dilution do not independently identify the best shareholder outcome.
No verified executable funded project package; discretionary construction remains financing-gated
The workbook’s fixed-terms B–E family holds investor claims constant to isolate corrected balances, eligible costs and financing packages. Phase 1, Phase 2 and external Power-SPV funding remain separate. Financing-enabled scheduling is a separately labeled F comparison.
The eleven captures below select from a bounded search of provider terms, ownership, issuance prices and capital-recycling assumptions. Claims vary between cases even where rent and physical operations remain fixed. These captures are a financing frontier, rather than a claim that each value change is caused only by eligible costs.
Eleven frozen workbook comparisons. The browser switches captured cases; it does not recalculate debt capacity or simulate live market terms. Economic feasibility and documentary execution remain separate gates.
Conditional value retained per original share
$2.4146
Conditional economically feasible; uncommitted
A conditional model output at the analysis cutoff. It is not a stock-price forecast or an executable financing commitment.
Integrated funding package
Every dated funding need and priced claimant must pass.
Project debt sizing, draw and maturity tests
PassEach phase is constrained by its own eligible cost, value, equity, commitment and debt-service tests.
Project investor claims and qualifying equity
PassPriced common/preferred calls include future takeout support; qualification of preferred as lender equity is conditional.
Dated HoldCo sources and uses
PassA failed dated cash requirement has no feasible funded value. Negative cash is not carried without a provider.
Conditional LC event ledger
PassGross collateral release is reduced by the proxy debt payoff and new fees; new cash margin remains restricted.
Secondary buyer return and priced transfer
PassBuyer claims, transfer charges and future sold capital calls are priced and reconciled.
Modeled acceptance, capacity and consent are separate from verified commitments.
Executed project debt and equity commitments
UnverifiedThe research cases are uncommitted; a mathematical pass does not establish drawable capital.
Binding tenant rent and credit support
UnverifiedLease, tenant credit, completion obligations and enforceable lender assignments are assumptions requiring documentation.
Macquarie priority and senior-lender consent
UnverifiedMacquarie first-lien subordination/release and intercreditor permissions are assumed, not verified.
Reconciled current unrestricted cash and amended payoff
UnresolvedLatest amended loan balances, fees, warrants, shares and available ATM capacity cannot be reconciled from the acquired disclosures.
Preferred accepted as lender qualifying equity
UnverifiedAssumed acceptance is distinct from contractual senior-lender approval.
Replacement LC and actual collateral release
UnverifiedNo validated $104.4m bank credit support, replacement facility or release consents; tenant signature alone cannot release collateral.
Secondary sale consent and committed buyer
UnverifiedZero senior debt takeout at sale requires assumed transfer consent; no executed buyer funding is established.
Independent Power SPV funding and delivery
UnverifiedExternal Power debt/equity, capacity offtake, fuel pass-through and delivery remain independent execution gates.
A passing modeled return does not establish an investor commitment. Public-cohort rows summarize the dated subscriptions; the workbook contains their individual cash flows.
| Provider | Required / modeled return | Required / modeled MOIC | Hurdle NPV | Economics | Commitment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 senior lenderDisplayed return is the assumed contractual coupon, not a separately captured lender IRR. Amount, covenants, reserves and dated principal are tested; lender commitment is hypothetical. | 7% / 7% | Unavailable / Unavailable | Unavailable | Pass | Uncommitted |
| P1 outside common investorLifetime capital invested $1329.965m; lifetime receipts $3270.975m. IRR is null where the source comparison did not capture its root; NPV/MOIC provider tests remain recorded. | 12% / 12.29% | 1.5× / 2.46× | $14.19m | Pass | Uncommitted |
| P1 preferred investorLifetime capital invested $293.910m; lifetime receipts $318.649m. IRR is null where the source comparison did not capture its root; NPV/MOIC provider tests remain recorded. | 10% / 10.46% | 1× / 1.08× | $0.84m | Pass | Uncommitted |
| P2 senior lenderDisplayed return is the assumed contractual coupon, not a separately captured lender IRR. Amount, covenants, reserves and dated principal are tested; lender commitment is hypothetical. | 7% / 7% | Unavailable / Unavailable | Unavailable | Pass | Uncommitted |
| P2 outside common investorLifetime capital invested $3533.330m; lifetime receipts $8694.728m. IRR is null where the source comparison did not capture its root; NPV/MOIC provider tests remain recorded. | 12% / 12.08% | 1.5× / 2.46× | $7.31m | Pass | Uncommitted |
| P2 preferred investorLifetime capital invested $780.821m; lifetime receipts $853.164m. IRR is null where the source comparison did not capture its root; NPV/MOIC provider tests remain recorded. | 10% / 10.46% | 1× / 1.09× | $1.86m | Pass | Uncommitted |
| Parent public-issuance investorsMinimum cohort IRR and MOIC; sum of cohort hurdle NPVs. Required return is the source 11% public-equity hurdle. Current market access and unsold ATM capacity are unverified. | 11% / 12.25% | 1× / 7.42× | $14.34m | Pass | Uncommitted |
| Secondary project-equity buyerBuyer receives sold future receipts and assumes sold future calls. Assumed senior transfer consent permits zero principal takeout; buyer commitment is unverified. | 12% / 12% | 1.5× / 3.87× | $0m | Pass | Uncommitted |
Follow unlevered economics through financing, project claims, HoldCo obligations and allocation to the original cohort. These present values are distinct from nominal financing proceeds.
Modeled date: 2026-10-08
Assumed price $2/share; 34.593396m new shares. This is a priced funding assumption, not a commitment.
Modeled date: 2026-11-01
Gross release already excludes the new cash margin. Principal/premium are conservative proxies; actual amended payoff is unknown. $104.4m additional credit support and consents are unverified.
Modeled date: 2026-11-01
Conditional monthly schedule; complete funding is drawn across the construction period, not all at this date.
Modeled date: 2029-04-01
Conditional monthly schedule; complete funding is drawn across the construction period, not all at this date.
Modeled date: 2029-05-01
Sells 3.75% of project ownership, retaining 11.25%. Senior transfer/release consent, buyer and tax basis are unverified.
Modeled date: 2038-04-01
The 20-year amortization / 10-year maturity package requires priced investor capital calls for its balloon; no unsupported refinancing is assumed.
Modeled date: 2041-03-01
The 20-year amortization / 10-year maturity package requires priced investor capital calls for its balloon; no unsupported refinancing is assumed.
Independent debt, equity, offtake and delivery
UnverifiedProvider economics pass conditionally; binding capacity offtake, fuel pass-through, external commitments and delivery remain unverified.
Selecting a case changes the displayed frozen result. It does not rerun the financing engine, update market prices or accept new inputs. Use the editable workbook for recalculation.
Captured results SHA-256: 7b69bece2db6bb4598d843142cc21d132bee335dec37b57c0f8e23a605f96973
The optimized captures vary provider claims and ownership. The workbook also contains fixed-terms B–E comparisons to isolate eligibility and package effects.
Senior project liens require Macquarie takeout or documented subordination and permitted liens. Borrowed sponsor equity, preferred qualification and project distributions require their own consent. Tenant-owned GPUs provide no NUAI collateral.
The 10% replacement margin is an unsupported conditional bank-credit assumption, priced with fees. It requires $104.4m of additional bank-acceptable support plus bank, Vistra and Macquarie acceptance. A tenant signature does not automatically release the pledge.
The bridge has no assumed extension. Project balloons, preferred redemptions and later corporate obligations are funded or cause a failed case. Lifetime investor funding includes recapitalization calls beyond construction.
A direct structure must replace the partner’s services and guarantees at a price. Power funding and firm off-take remain independent gates; a 20-year PPA does not establish a 20-year tenant lease. Vistra’s legal entity and waterfall allocation remain unresolved in the modeled proxy.
The workbook contains live selected-case formulas, dated sources and uses, claimant waterfalls and independent economic and evidence gates. Its eleven-case captures are shown here for review. Changed assumptions require recalculation and fresh financing-search outputs where applicable.
NUAI-TCDC-v2.6-2026-10-08.xlsx · 6,718,187 bytes
SHA-256: 579282dd882132ff2ddeca3ec769a63f0de1a876dcfb79213844fc173f6d0758
NUAI-TCDC-v2.6-Review-Memo-2026-10-08.pdf · 89,573 bytes
SHA-256: 31ec3c272252230d9de2d6add4aeea6a0deda4e7eb5cfe75f02531873b3f18ea
NUAI-TCDC-v2.6-Simple-Explanation-2026-10-08.pdf · 78,086 bytes
SHA-256: d7a3e6bd11c97287b4f3bf9b83267bf018ea558e2e41fc0eb9ef45f911c65e97
NUAI-TCDC-v2.6-Source-Change-QA-Register-2026-10-08.md · 40,087 bytes
SHA-256: c0aa6a31b22e99806fb6e69f5afebd094b454ffb04294aa0da5e6963f776be38
The frozen PDFs retain their original review-draft headers. The original v2.5 formulas and caches are preserved in archived workbook tabs; v2.1 and its browser calculator remain available separately.
81,227 active formulas, 33,932 schedule and aggregate comparisons, and 11 selectors were checked. The 7,766-candidate search found 85 conditional economic passes and 0 verified executable project packages. It does not prove a global optimum.
@oai/artifact-tool 2.8.89; portable finance engine 2.6.2026-10-08-source-conditional-3.
Native Excel/LibreOffice unavailable; Artifact component calculation/export/reopen and final OOXML plus independent active-formula replay were checked.
The reviewed v2.6 model preserves the source's separate cash-coupon and PIK treatment; corrects dated public cohorts, negative-cash funding, maturity gates and stale comparisons; separates physical, eligible and complete funding uses; and prices capital recycling alongside ownership. Every missing dollar must have a dated provider and a claim. This recovery preview changes website integration only; the approved workbook and companion files retain their exact bytes and October 8 analysis cutoff.