NUAI
NUAI/TCDC: Technical Appendix
Regulatory, physical, engineering, leasing and financing evidence supporting the eight gates.
Read the companion investigation, NUAI: From Announced Megawatts to Bankable Cash Flow.
Analyst EstimateThe engineering, timing and financial sensitivities are illustrative calculations, not project forecasts or a NUAI per-share forecast. Company disclosures and operative documents have the separate evidentiary limits described below.Research cutoff: October 22, 2026. Targeted rechecks of pre-cutoff records were completed October 23, 2026.
This appendix preserves the evidence behind the article's eight gates. It distinguishes executed contractual provisions, official actions, attributed company claims, analyst inferences and illustrative calculations. No missing public document is treated as proof that an approval or agreement does not exist.
Measurement and financial boundaries
| Topic | Boundary used | Interpretation limit |
|---|---|---|
| Power | Phase 1 electricity supply; Phase 2 generation development envelope | Their sum is not certified IT capacity. Peak overhead ratio k is distinct from annual PUE. |
| Revenue | Critical IT capacity and contractual commencement | Gross revenue differs from NOI, project distributions and shareholder cash. |
| Peer leases | Initial-term announced expected contract value divided by years, critical IT kW and twelve months | Average undiscounted revenue proxies are not starting rent or NUAI pricing. |
| Gas | Separate annual energy demand and full-load daily requirement | Fuel procurement, pressure, quality and cost allocation remain contractual. |
| Water | 150 MW IT at 90% average loading; onsite withdrawal/makeup convention | Water supplied is not net consumptive loss; upstream generation water is excluded. |
| LC | $116 million face; 102% cash collateral, with disclosed figures rounded | LC face and pledged cash are not two immediate expenditures; pledged cash is restricted. |
| Value | Illustrative stabilized asset NOI divided by cap rate | Debt, development capital, ownership and parent claims separate asset value from common equity. |
Reading the evidence
The regulatory notes retain phase-specific applicability and the distinction between an ERCOT report and permit resumption. The physical-development notes retain meeting, packet and recording dates. The engineering notes separate conceptual examples from site specifications. The peer dataset includes original agreements and later amendments as distinct observations. The financing notes preserve historical versus operative-document limitations.
Source identifiers resolve in the accompanying source register. Dated company announcements are evidence of what the issuer disclosed; they are not independent certification of physical performance. Numerical unknowns remain unknown, not zero. The calculation ledgers contain inputs, formulas, units and assumptions for every figure.
Permitting and ERCOT applicability
Research cutoff: October 22, 2026. This appendix separates statewide policy, company disclosures and project-specific authorization. An application, an issued authorization and an operational facility represent different milestones.
Gate 1 — Permitting and regulatory timing
The Governor's September 21 directive paused TCEQ permit issuance related to data-center projects pending ERCOT's review. TCEQ's October 19 implementation letter covers construction and infrastructure directly supporting data centers. It describes screening pending applications, pausing covered applications and screening authorizations that do not require affirmative permit issuance, with suspension where possible. Neither document identifies an individual TCDC stop-work order, revoked approval or automatic exemption. REG-06 REG-07
The information-gathering timetable is clearer than the permit-reopening timetable. ERCOT's official State and Community Impact RFI page identifies data centers of at least 25 MW pursuing ERCOT interconnection, an October 12, 2026 response deadline and a planned report on or before December 10, 2026. Its September 24 clarification preserves the 5 p.m. Central Prevailing Time October 12 deadline. The records reviewed through the research cutoff do not identify a replacement timetable. December 10 is a reporting milestone, not a guaranteed date for resuming permits. REG-10 REG-12
The September 24 notice distinguishes conditionally classified Batch Zero large-load data centers from medium loads of at least 25 MW but less than 75 MW that their transmission or distribution service provider had reported as substantiated in the August 19 medium-load RFI. Those identified medium-load customers were required to respond. Newly substantiated medium-load customers could participate voluntarily, with requests due by October 5 and responses still due October 12. The 25 MW information threshold is separate from the large-load interconnection rule's applicability tests. REG-12
Regulatory chronology
| Date | Record and status | Consequence for the analysis |
|---|---|---|
| August 17, 2026 | NUAI SEC presentation, slides 7–8: company-reported 550 MW Phase 2 air application and islanded/behind-the-meter design | A disclosed application and design claim; no issued air authorization established by the presentation REG-02 |
| September 14, 2026 | ERCOT issues State and Community Impact RFI | Information collection is distinct from permit adjudication REG-11 REG-12 |
| September 18 / September 21, 2026 | PPA entered / Form 8-K filed | Phase 1 supply of 200–207 MW is contractual and subject to conditions; it does not establish completed delivery infrastructure REG-05 |
| September 21, 2026 | Governor's directive to TCEQ | Broad related-permit issuance pause pending ERCOT review REG-06 |
| September 24, 2026 | ERCOT clarification M-B091426-02 | Retains October 12 response deadline and clarifies medium-load participation REG-12 |
| October 8, 2026 | Effective date of adopted 16 TAC §25.194 | Operative large-load interconnection standard, rather than the March proposal REG-04 |
| October 12, 2026 | RFI response deadline | Deadline for the covered respondents; no inference that TCDC was a respondent or failed to respond REG-10 REG-12 |
| October 19, 2026 | TCEQ implementation letter | Screening extends to directly supporting infrastructure and certain claimed authorizations REG-07 |
| On or before December 10, 2026 | Planned ERCOT/PUCT report | Future reporting milestone as of the cutoff; permit reopening remains a separate decision REG-10 |
Phase-specific exposure
| Workstream | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Unresolved project evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prime generation | Contracted supply can come from the existing Odessa plant; Phase 1 does not require commissioning the entire proposed Phase 2 plant | Proposed new generation creates its own construction, emissions and commissioning requirements | Existing-plant modification needs, the new generator's equipment schedule and the applicable authorizations |
| Air authorization | Existing generation does not establish clearance for every modification or campus backup generator | August presentation reports a Thunderhead subsidiary's application supporting approximately 550 MW | Exact applicant subsidiary, regulated-entity/customer numbers, application or registration number, approved equipment and current agency disposition were not independently established |
| Campus and delivery infrastructure | Substations, lines, buildings and site work remain separate from the PPA's supply promise | Shared facilities or expansion work may introduce additional dependencies | Issued instruments, scope boundaries, remaining amendments and conditions |
| Previously reported permissions | NUAI reported county development/drive permits and grading-related NOI approval before the directive | Coverage of later expansion work is not demonstrated | Earlier approval is neither proof of current comprehensive coverage nor evidence of revocation |
| TCEQ screening | A remaining covered authorization could matter even if generation already exists | New-generation and directly supporting infrastructure authorizations could matter | A site-specific agency determination is needed to establish the actual effect |
| ERCOT | Depends on the final service and electrical configuration | Depends on the final service and electrical configuration | Single-line diagram, service agreements, interconnection status, requested demand and import/export rights |
Sources: REG-02 REG-05 REG-06 REG-07. The exposure assessment is an inference from those records, not a finding that any unidentified authorization is missing or invalid. City or ETJ platting, county approvals and environmental authorizations can address different work; one milestone cannot substitute for the others.
Schedule and economic sensitivities
A regulatory delay moves occupancy only if it consumes the available schedule flexibility and moves the controlling completion milestone. If financing, equipment delivery or tenant acceptance already occurs later, a permit delay within that interval may not change occupancy. Concurrent delays should not be added mechanically. Phase 1 and Phase 2 can have different controlling dependencies.
The following examples are sensitivities, not forecasts of TCDC's delay. Pure timing assumes the entire unchanged future cash-flow stream shifts by d months at an 11% discount rate: V_delayed / V_original = (1.11)^(-d/12). The separate simple financing-carry example assumes each $100 million of average drawn debt remains outstanding at 10% annual interest during the added period.
| Illustrative delay | Retained present value | Pure timing reduction | Additional simple carry per $100 million average drawn debt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 months | 94.92% | 5.08% | $5 million |
| 12 months | 90.09% | 9.91% | $10 million |
| 24 months | 81.16% | 18.84% | $20 million |
These columns should not be summed into a valuation haircut without tracing the underlying cash flows. Interest may already be included in project cash flow; delayed receipts, incremental costs and financing claims must not be counted twice. Fixed contract expiry dates, additional construction costs or milestone failures can also invalidate the unchanged-stream assumption. The PPA disclosure identifies conditions precedent by December 31, 2027; whether a particular delay affects those conditions depends on the actual completion schedule and operative agreements. REG-05
| Conditional outcome | Permitting and schedule interpretation |
|---|---|
| Bull | Existing authorizations remain effective; outstanding permissions clear before another controlling milestone. Additional delay to occupancy can be zero. |
| Reference | Phase 1 and Phase 2 are evaluated separately. Neither a blanket exemption nor an automatic project stop is established. The occupancy effect remains conditional on the permit inventory and integrated schedule. |
| Bear | A covered approval remains paused or requires revision beyond available schedule flexibility, moving completion and potentially encountering contract or financing deadlines. |
For NUAI, existing Phase 1 generation is favorable evidence, while Phase 2's disclosed application status leaves a distinct approval gate. A complete permit inventory with agency disposition and a dependency-based construction schedule would materially narrow the uncertainty. No probabilities are assigned to these outcomes.
Gate 7 — Behind-the-meter and ERCOT applicability
Behind-the-meter describes an electrical arrangement; it does not resolve all regulatory questions. Section 25.194 concerns interconnection to the ERCOT system. Effective October 8, 2026, its applicability covers not-yet-energized large-load customers seeking a new site interconnection of at least 75 MW, expansions first reaching 75 MW, expansions of at least 75 MW at sites already above that level, or co-location with generation. The co-location provision must be read with the definition of large-load customer: at least 75 MW total expected non-coincident peak demand at one site, at transmission or distribution voltage. REG-04: (a), (b), (c)(14)
Configuration questions
| Configuration to establish | Regulatory inference | Decisive project evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Fully disconnected load and generation | An ERCOT interconnection charge should not be assigned merely from the campus's MW announcement; environmental permissions remain a separate issue | Electrical single-line, protection scheme and confirmation of service boundaries |
| Behind-the-meter generation operating in parallel with ERCOT | The label does not establish an exemption | Requested service capacity, metering, protection and binding utility agreements |
| Load co-located with grid-connected generation | Co-location requires examination under the operative rule; low net imports alone do not settle applicability | Gross load, import rights, generation configuration and interconnection classification |
| Import-only or standby service | Infrequent grid use does not by itself establish an exemption from applicable capacity commitments | Contracted peak demand and standby arrangements |
| Flexible or interruptible load with backup | Flexibility must be reconciled with accepted service terms and tenant uptime obligations; no automatic priority for TCDC is established | Approved classification, curtailment obligations and backup operating limits |
These are conditional configurations, not verified descriptions of TCDC. August management material described both phases as islanded. The September PPA disclosure permits electricity sourced from the Odessa plant, other sources or ERCOT. That supply flexibility does not prove the physical campus has completed grid access, and the earlier islanding claim does not establish immunity from environmental permitting. REG-02 REG-05
Security arithmetic and limits
The rule's intermediate security uses $50,000/MW of requested demand. At the standard large-load interconnection agreement stage, security is the greater of $50,000/MW of contracted peak demand or allocated system-upgrade costs. Direct interconnection contributions in aid of construction are separate cash obligations; additional minimum-billing-demand security may apply. Earlier collateral is subject to credit/return provisions rather than automatic double counting. REG-04: (d)(2)(B), (f)(2)(A)–(D)
207 MW × $50,000/MW = $10.35 million is therefore only conditional arithmetic. The disclosed 207 MW supply quantity has not been established as TCDC's relevant requested or contracted grid demand. The result is neither a verified TCDC liability nor a saving, complete connection-cost estimate or automatic expense. The actual instrument, collateral funding, upgrade allocation, other obligations and release conditions determine its financial effect.
For NUAI, a confirmed islanded configuration could avoid a specific interconnection dependency while leaving self-supply reliability and environmental requirements. A qualifying grid-connected configuration could provide alternative supply while introducing service commitments and financial obligations. The decisive evidence is the executed service and interconnection package matched to the final electrical design, not the marketing label.
Primary records
- REG-02: NUAI August 17, 2026 SEC Exhibit 99.1, slides 7–8.
- REG-04: Texas Register, October 2, 2026 adopted 16 TAC §25.194; TRD-202604027. Operative text and effective-date footer.
- REG-05: NUAI September 21, 2026 Form 8-K, Item 1.01.
- REG-06: Governor's September 21, 2026 TCEQ directive, pages 1–2.
- REG-07: TCEQ October 19, 2026 implementation letter, page 1.
- REG-10: ERCOT State and Community Impact RFI page, timetable paragraph.
- REG-11: ERCOT September 14, 2026 notice M-B091426-01, issuance notice identified and described in the subsequent official clarification.
- REG-12: ERCOT September 24, 2026 notice M-B091426-02, Long Description and Action Required.
Physical development and network evidence
Research cutoff: October 22, 2026. Government records, executed instruments and operator disclosures support different levels of verification. An unlocated record is not evidence that a permit, contract or asset does not exist.
Physical development
Planning chronology and jurisdiction
| Record date | Record | Established status |
|---|---|---|
| August 14, 2026 | New Era's construction-permit announcement | The company reported Ector County Development Structure and Drive Approach permits, a grading Notice of Intent approval, and submission of the Phase 1 plat. Issued permit copies were not independently obtained. PN09 |
| September 17, 2026 | Odessa Planning & Zoning Commission, case 2026-91-P(ETJ) | The meeting record shows a 4–0 conditional preliminary approval for New Era Phase 1, 63.42 acres, in Odessa's extraterritorial jurisdiction. PN01 PN02 |
| October 1, 2026 | Odessa agenda packet, PDF page 6 | This packet reproduces the September 17 meeting record. October 1 is the packet date, not the date of the preliminary-plat decision. PN01 |
The planning record locates the tract east of S JBS Parkway Boulevard, approximately 1,645 feet north of E Bates Field. It also records a proposed well serving employees, with a 150-foot setback. This limited water-use statement establishes neither the cooling-water supply nor a cooling-water deficit. PN01
A county development or driveway permit, ETJ subdivision approval and environmental authorization address different scopes. Their dates therefore need not match. The earlier company permit announcement and subsequent preliminary-plat vote are not inherently contradictory. The reviewed record does not establish a final recorded plat, discharge of every staff condition, completion of a foundation or occupancy authorization.
Land ownership and remaining conditions
ECAD parcel 47010.00020.00000 identifies Texas Critical Data Centers LLC as owner of a 235-acre tract, with a July 25, 2025 sale and deed 2025-00014469. The second amended deed describes 205.13 acres, acquired December 19, 2025 under instrument 2025-00024528. The legal descriptions and changing rounded campus totals are different records; neither supports a precise whole-campus polygon without a reconciled survey. Tax values and assessed-building entries are not current construction inspections. PN03 PN04 PN05
The deed beneficiary is Odessa Industrial Development Corporation d/b/a Grow Odessa. Two amendments dated March 25, 2026 replace the earlier repurchase exhibits. For the original tract, the historical contract included six- and nine-month milestones and a completed-foundation condition. The amended condition is materially less demanding: initiation of foundation pouring for at least one suitably comparable data-center building on usable acreage, with reasonable engineering modifications permitted, within 24 months of recording of the amendment. General clearing alone does not meet that description. PN04 PN05 PN08
The amendments retain an 80%-of-original-purchase-price repurchase mechanism, notice and tender procedures, a 60-day conveyance period, and protection for legally existing good-faith mortgages or liens. The recording dates and qualifying-work evidence were not established by the retrieved documents. Consequently, March 25, 2028 is not asserted as a binding deadline, nor is any exercise of the repurchase right asserted. No superseding instrument was identified in the bounded check; that is not a certification of the complete current title chain. PN04 PN05 PN06
Milestone evidence
| Milestone | Evidence at the cutoff | What remains unresolved |
|---|---|---|
| Original land acquisition | ECAD and SEC-filed instrument identify the 235-acre acquisition. PN03 PN04 | Current complete title exceptions and releases |
| Adjacent acquisition | Executed amendment identifies the 205.13-acre tract and original recorded deed. PN05 | Full current county title chain and parcel reconciliation |
| Corridor acquisition | Company reported completion of the approximately 54-acre acquisition in August. PN09 | Independently retrieved corridor deed and exact boundaries |
| Preliminary plat | September 17 conditional approval is independently documented. PN01 | Final plat recordation and satisfaction of staff conditions |
| County permits and grading authorization | Company reported approvals in August. PN09 PN10 | Issued instruments, scope, conditions and applicable subsequent agency treatment |
| Surface waivers and reclamation | One operator waiver was pending and reclamation remained ongoing in August's disclosures. PN09 PN10 | Later completion status; physical pipeline removal alone does not establish easement release |
| Engineering | Ramboll Data Center Facilities, formerly EYP Mission Critical Facilities, was appointed for design and engineering. PN11 | Completed designs, construction contract, fixed-price scope and delivery milestones |
| Foundation, building and commissioning | Contemporary completion records were not retrieved. | Inspections, dated construction evidence and engineer or tenant acceptance |
The evidence supports real land and planning progress. It leaves the date of full construction readiness unresolved. Recorded final approvals, applicable permit instruments, completed site rights and certified works would strengthen the physical case; missing public records alone do not weaken it by a calculable amount.
Fiber and service acceptance
Dark fiber is installed optical fiber whose owner or customer must equip it to carry traffic. A right to use dark fiber, a completed cable route and accepted telecommunications service are separate milestones. A carrier coverage map is weaker evidence than an executed campus order and tested service.
| Evidence layer | Supported observation | Limitation for TCDC |
|---|---|---|
| Regional operating fiber | FiberLight's June 11, 2024 announcement reports successful deployment of an 80-mile Ector ISD dark-fiber network with loop routing. PN19 | The school network is not proof of spare commercial strands, a campus connection or two independent TCDC paths. |
| Historical long-haul connectivity | FiberLight reported completion of its Texas Connector in 2018, linking its western network with major Texas markets. PN20 | Regional construction does not establish current campus-specific capacity, price or service terms. |
| TCDC framework | Sharon AI's release, dated September 29, 2025 in its SEC-filed version, describes a nonbinding GlobeLink memorandum to purchase dark-fiber use rights and associated maintenance services. PN13A | It does not establish an executed service order, binding delivery date or accepted campus connection. |
| GlobeLink development | The operator's website describes its network as under development. PN14 | Development mileage is not commissioned route mileage; the marketing map is not an as-built campus plan. |
| Counterparty funding | GlobeLink announced a Cequel III investment in May 2026. PN17 | Announced investor support does not establish the amount allocated to TCDC or full funding of its laterals. |
| Regional expansion | FiberLight's 2026 announcements describe new West Texas builds and a phased Midland–El Paso corridor. PN21 PN22 | Planned segments and targeted dates are not evidence that the whole corridor is operating. |
| Campus orders and rights | Binding site-specific orders and rights were not obtained. | Undisclosed arrangements or alternative carriers may already address some requirements. |
| Campus connections and acceptance | Accepted laterals, meet-me facilities and site-specific service tests were not independently established. | Additional construction could resolve the gap; absence of public detail is not evidence of failure. |
Two providers can share ducts, bridge crossings, carrier huts, upstream fibers or power supplies. Physical diversity therefore requires analysis of common failure points, not merely a count of carrier names. Relevant acceptance evidence includes defined endpoints, delivered capacity, latency and loss tests, failover capacity, restoration commitments and completion responsibility. Commercial confidentiality may limit what can be published without preventing parties and lenders from verifying these matters.
The network evidence supports a regional carrier ecosystem and a development pathway. It does not establish accepted TCDC service on the power-delivery date. Enforceable service commitments and successful tenant acceptance would resolve that uncertainty; the possibility of undisclosed alternatives prevents a conclusion that the disclosed GlobeLink framework is the campus's only option.
Construction sensitivities
The actual lengths, carrier quotations and cost allocation for TCDC's laterals are unknown. The following comparisons are scale illustrations, not a TCDC budget or valuation adjustment. FBA's technical publication cites approximately $80,000 per route mile for directional boring. FiberLight's announced $350 million program covering about 1,400 route miles implies $250,000 per route mile across a substantially broader network scope. PN21 PN23
| Hypothetical total new route length | Boring benchmark at $80,000/mile | Broad program ratio at $250,000/mile |
|---|---|---|
| 2 miles | $0.16 million | $0.50 million |
| 10 miles | $0.80 million | $2.50 million |
| 50 miles | $4.00 million | $12.50 million |
The columns are not lower and upper estimates of the same scope. Rights-of-way, crossings, duct counts, equipment, maintenance and contingency require a project-specific reconciliation; the broader program figure may already include some categories. A carrier may recover construction through service charges or upfront rights rather than requiring NUAI to own the network. None of the evidence supports assigning the full GlobeLink network cost to NUAI.
Connectivity affects rent timing only when it moves a required completion or acceptance milestone after available schedule flexibility has been exhausted. Concurrent building, power, cooling and network delays are not mechanically additive. The same land rights or financing constraint can affect several workstreams at once, while an early network completion can leave another workstream controlling the start of rent.
Evidence boundaries
This assessment is a bounded review of public records and attributed disclosures. The detailed staff conditions in the September 17 archived planning packet, the amendments' county recording dates, a complete current title report and campus-specific network acceptance records remain unverified. The precise underground route geometry was not established. Any connectivity diagram is conceptual unless it identifies independently supported geometry and its date; no existing TCDC fiber connection is inferred from a regional map.
Engineering and resource sensitivities
Gate 2 — Announced power needs a defensible IT denominator
TCDC has a contracted electricity supply quantity and a separate generation-development plan. NUAI's September 21 filing describes a Phase 1 agreement for 200–207 MW, subject to delivery conditions. Its August presentation describes roughly 550 MW for Phase 2 and calls the combined 757 MW figure gross capacity. These quantities have different measurement boundaries; their sum is neither certified operating capacity nor a lease for that much critical IT load—the power available to tenants' computing equipment. ENG01 ENG02
The engineering question is where electricity is measured and what remains available during the required operating conditions. At a fixed 207 MW facility-delivery boundary, dividing by an illustrative peak overhead ratio, k, of 1.20, 1.30 or 1.40 produces 172.50, 159.23 or 147.86 MW of IT capacity. These ratios allow for facility loads within the stated boundary. Annual power usage effectiveness, or PUE, instead compares a year's facility energy with IT energy; it does not certify the hottest-hour capacity. Electrical losses or redundancy already included in the selected boundary must not be deducted again. ENG11
A separate, explicitly hypothetical Phase 2 example applies a 90% aggregate firm-delivery allowance to 550 MW. That leaves 495 MW; adding 207 MW and dividing by k = 1.30 gives 540 MW of IT. The allowance is a placeholder for constraints that require an actual engineering design. It is not an annual capacity factor, a measured TCDC derating, or evidence that the site can deliver this load. Phase 1's electricity-supply quantity should not first receive a hypothetical generator gross-to-net deduction.
The commercial sequence is distinct: construction, commissioning, tenant acceptance, lease commencement and billing. The executed contract determines the tests and any exceptions to that sequence. There is no evidence here for numerical reductions at those stages. Under take-or-pay terms, reserved capacity may generate rent despite low server usage; conversely, a completed installation may not bill until its contractual conditions are met.
At an assumed $150 per critical kW per month, each billable IT MW represents $1.8 million of annual gross capacity revenue. Reducing the illustrative Phase 1 ratio from 1.30 to 1.20 adds 13.27 MW and potentially $23.88 million of annual gross revenue, only if the additional capacity is built, leased, accepted and billable. This is not net operating income or shareholder cash; construction, operations, financing, ownership and tax obligations remain.
For NUAI, the signed supply agreement is favorable evidence, while the unverified conversion to accepted IT capacity limits what can be inferred from the headline MW. A phase-specific electrical design, peak-condition load budget and tenant delivery specification would turn that gap into a measurable commercial obligation.
Gate 5 — Cheap regional gas is not a firm fuel chain
NUAI's May presentation names Enterprise, ONEOK and White Water as pipeline-access providers and describes physically diverse gas supply. That supports a regional infrastructure advantage, but does not establish the full site delivery chain. Firm supply requires contracted quantities, transport priority, pressure, gas quality, metering, compression and operating responsibilities. Different suppliers can still share upstream facilities or a common source of disruption. ENG03
The operator announcements establish different kinds of progress. Kinder Morgan reported that the Gulf Coast Express expansion entered service on June 23, 2026, adding approximately 570 MMcf per day and taking total system capacity to about 2.59 Bcf per day. Energy Transfer's August 4 release reported Hugh Brinson in commercial service but described full Phase I capability of 1.5 Bcf per day by September 1 as an expectation. The latter forecast is not an observation of actual October throughput; neither statement demonstrates a contracted TCDC connection. ENG15 ENG16
More regional takeaway can help sustain production and expand delivery options. It can also reduce congestion that contributes to discounted local gas prices. The size and direction of the resulting Waha price effect depend on supply, demand and contracts. This mechanism supports neither a specific NUAI margin forecast nor an assumption that added pipelines make its fuel cheaper.
Fuel quantities illustrate why the contractual boundaries matter. For a hypothetical 550 MW generation fleet at 90% annual capacity factor, heat rates of 7, 9 and 11 MMBtu per MWh imply 30.35, 39.03 and 47.70 million MMBtu of annual fuel. Heat rate measures fuel energy consumed per unit of electricity; these examples use a consistent higher-heating-value basis. The 7 case resembles efficient combined-cycle economics and is not a specification for TCDC's equipment. Annual capacity factor measures energy production relative to continuous full output, not service availability. ENG13 ENG17
Annual average demand is also different from peak transport. At full 550 MW output and heat rate 9, the requirement is 118,800 MMBtu per day, approximately 114.56 MMcf per day using an illustrative 1,037 Btu per cubic foot. At 90% annual loading, average demand is lower. Actual gas quality and required inlet pressure govern the connection design.
A $1 per MMBtu change alters the illustrative generation fuel bill by $30.35–47.70 million annually in those 90% cases. That is not automatically NUAI's expense. Phase 1 purchases electricity from Luminant; fuel-price formulas, hedging and tenant recovery determine where the cost falls. For Phase 2, the reviewed Thunderhead announcement described a nonbinding 250 MW arrangement, not an independently verified, fully funded 550 MW operating contract. ENG01 ENG09
For NUAI, regional supply and operator-reported expansions are favorable infrastructure evidence. The unresolved condition is the enforceable, commissioned fuel-to-power chain and who bears its cost and interruption risk. Executed supply and transport terms, commissioned delivery equipment and tested redundancy would materially strengthen that position; their absence from public records does not prove they cannot be obtained.
Gate 6 — Closed-loop cooling needs a complete heat-rejection design
Liquid cooling describes how heat leaves computing equipment. The outside heat-rejection system may use dry coolers, evaporative towers or a hybrid arrangement. DOE's technical guidance illustrates a closed internal loop transferring heat to a separate loop and cooling tower. “Closed-loop” therefore proves neither zero water consumption nor an unacceptable water problem. ENG10
NUAI has said it prioritizes closed-loop liquid cooling and reclaimed water. Those choices can be valuable, but the reviewed disclosures do not establish a phase-specific water balance or peak-temperature performance. The local planning record's employee-use well concerns a limited use; it neither establishes the cooling-water supply nor demonstrates that a required supply is missing. ENG05 S08
The principal sensitivity uses 150 MW of IT capacity operating at 90% average load. Water usage effectiveness, or WUE, relates annual onsite water use to IT electricity in litres per kWh. To make the accounting explicit, the examples here define the water numerator as onsite withdrawals/makeup supplied to the system, rather than net consumptive loss after returned or discharged water. This is a selected calculation convention, not a reported TCDC metric. DOE's general site-water-usage definition does not establish TCDC's withdrawal or discharge boundary. ENG11
At that common baseline, each 0.10 L/kWh corresponds to 118.26 million litres, or 118,260 cubic metres, annually. Illustrative WUE values of 0.05, 0.20 and 1.00 L/kWh produce 59.13, 236.52 and 1,182.60 million litres. These values do not estimate TCDC's actual demand or size its peak-day supply. Reclaimed water can replace potable withdrawals without eliminating evaporation. Offsite water used in electricity production belongs in a separate source-based footprint and should not be counted twice.
Annual efficiency and peak performance can differ. A dry design may need more heat-exchanger area or fan power during hot weather; a hybrid design may use little annual water but still require reliable peak-day makeup. An integrated assessment needs coolant temperatures, equipment limits, hourly weather performance, treatment and discharge arrangements, and the associated electricity and capital costs.
Energy Dome's announced assessment framework is another potential engineering option, not a commissioned storage asset. Any temporary output boost requires a duration, charge-state and loss calculation; any sustained improvement needs project-specific performance guarantees. It is not presently a verified addition to TCDC's firm leasable MW. ENG08
For NUAI, a low-water design remains plausible and potentially valuable. The public evidence leaves its full performance unresolved rather than demonstrating infeasibility. A phase-specific mechanical design, metered water boundary, peak-day water balance and supply agreement would make the costs and reliability implications assessable.
Engineering sensitivity tables
These are deterministic examples, not project forecasts. They preserve the distinction between disclosed quantities, engineering assumptions and contractual billing.
| Phase 1 electricity delivery | Peak overhead ratio k | Illustrative critical IT MW |
|---|---|---|
| 207 MW | 1.20 | 172.50 |
| 207 MW | 1.30 | 159.23 |
| 207 MW | 1.40 | 147.86 |
Formula: critical IT MW = electricity delivered at the specified facility boundary / peak_overhead_ratio. Annual PUE is a separate energy metric.
| 550 MW at 90% annual capacity factor | Annual fuel, million MMBtu | Average gas, MMcf/day |
|---|---|---|
| Heat rate 7 MMBtu/MWh | 30.3534 | 80.19 |
| Heat rate 9 MMBtu/MWh | 39.0258 | 103.11 |
| Heat rate 11 MMBtu/MWh | 47.6982 | 126.02 |
Annual fuel = 550 × 8,760 × 0.90 × heat rate. Average gas = 550 × 24 × 0.90 × heat rate / 1,037. The conversion uses an illustrative 1,037 Btu/cf; peak reservation and actual gas quality require separate evidence.
| WUE on selected withdrawal/makeup basis | Annual water, million litres | Annual water, million US gallons |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 L/kWh | 59.13 | 15.62 |
| 0.20 L/kWh | 236.52 | 62.48 |
| 1.00 L/kWh | 1,182.60 | 312.41 |
Annual water = 150 MW × 1,000 kW/MW × 8,760 hours × 0.90 average loading × WUE. Divide litres by 3.785411784 for US gallons. This is an onsite withdrawal/makeup convention, not net consumption, a site forecast or a peak-day calculation.
Peer lease economics and financing
Research cutoff: October 22, 2026. Selected pre-cutoff sources were rechecked on October 23. This comparison uses issuer disclosures and filed financing summaries; forecasts remain company guidance. It is not an exhaustive contract census.
Five initial-term revenue proxies
The following calculation standardizes the arithmetic denominator, not every economic term:
Average undiscounted revenue proxy = initial-term expected contract value / (initial-term years × contracted critical IT MW × 1,000 × 12).
The result is dollars per critical IT kW per month. It is not observed starting rent, a contractual cash-rent schedule, electricity recovery, NOI, free cash flow or an estimate of NUAI's achievable pricing. Initial contract values can incorporate escalators and delivery ramps. Renewal and expansion options are excluded. Values are approximate because the disclosed inputs are approximate.
| Agreement and announcement vintage | Critical IT MW | Initial years | Initial expected value | Proxy, $/critical kW/month | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riot / AMD, original tranche — Jan. 16, 2026 | 25 | 10 | $311m | $103.7 | LP14, LP15 |
| Applied Digital / Polaris Forge 3 — May 20, 2026 | 300 | 15 | $7.5bn | $138.9 | LP05 |
| Hut 8 / Beacon Point Phase 1 — May 6, 2026 | 352 | 15 | $9.8bn | $154.7 | LP17 |
| Hut 8 / River Bend — Dec. 17, 2025 | 245 | 15 | $7.0bn | $158.7 | LP16 |
| TeraWulf / Justified — July 6, 2026 | 401 | 20 | $19.0bn | $197.4 | LP01, LP02 |
Announcement date is not assumed to be the exact execution date. Riot's original 25 MW denominator is deliberately paired with the original $311m value; the later 50 MW relationship is a separate development.
Structure, options and delivery stage
| Agreement | Structure and delivery evidence | Options excluded from the quotient | Capital and credit context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riot / AMD original | Modified-gross retrofit lease with annual escalators; original 25 MW commissioned by the August 2026 update | Three five-year renewals; original additional 75 MW option and 100 MW right of first refusal | $89.8m retrofit estimate excludes separate $96m land acquisition. Detailed expense allocation remains unknown here. LP14 LP15 |
| Applied Digital / PF3 | Take-or-pay lease with unnamed high-investment-grade hyperscaler; initial operations August 2027 guidance | Renewal options increase stated value to $18.2bn; exact option durations not established in the reviewed announcement | Supported by approximately 430 MW gross utility power. PF3-specific funding close, all-in budget and exact fit-out allocation remain unknown here. LP05 |
| Hut 8 / Beacon Phase 1 | Triple-net lease with high-investment-grade tenant; future development | Renewals increase value to $25.1bn; exact option durations not established here. Separate second 352 MW lease excluded | June 2026 bond financing applies to this 352 MW phase, not the later full 704 MW campus. LP17 LP18 LP33 |
| Hut 8 / River Bend | Triple-net Fluidstack lease; initial hall commissioning Q2 2027 guidance; 3% annual base-rent escalation | Three five-year renewals; up to 1,000 additional IT MW subject to a right of first offer | Google financial backstop disclosed for lease payments and pass-through obligations. LP16 |
| TeraWulf / Justified | Direct Anthropic lease; initial capacity H2 2027 and full 401 MW early 2028 guidance | Two five-year renewals increase stated value to approximately $33bn | Investment-grade credit support described as expected; project-specific completion funding and all-in capital budget not established here. LP01 LP02 |
These differences prevent a ranking of economic attractiveness from the five bars alone. A lower price can accompany lower construction cost, stronger credit or fewer landlord obligations. A larger total can reflect a longer term.
Amendments must be evaluated as complete transactions
Cipher's September 25, 2026 Barber Lake announcement combines an amendment to the original Fluidstack lease with a binding commitment for a separate subsequent ten-year AI-lab lease. It adds approximately $5.2bn of expected contracted revenue and extends the combined horizon to 20 years and more than $9bn.
Cipher bears the first $359.3m above the initial construction budget. The tenant reimburses 50% of further excess through additional rent over the aggregate term, calculated to provide a contracted return. This creates an upfront funding obligation and delayed recovery. The clause alone does not establish whether the amendment improves or worsens the total investment return. Compensation, term, guarantees, financing, change-order scope and remaining capital obligations also matter. The revised delivery guidance is Q4 2026–Q1 2027, with rent starting by delivered hall. The amended critical IT denominator is not established here, so no revenue-per-IT-kW quotient is presented. LP08
Project debt is a real alternative to new parent shares
Hut 8's precedents provide counterevidence to the assumption that all development requires new parent common-equity issuance:
| Financing | Filed terms and use of proceeds | Economic qualification |
|---|---|---|
| River Bend | $3.25bn, 6.192% secured notes due November 2042; amortization from May 2028. April 30 filing reports offering completion April 27 and indenture April 30. Proceeds finance part of the 245 IT MW project and substation, reimburse prior equity, and fund reserves and fees. LP32 | Hut 8 describes the financing as fully amortizing, nonrecourse and nondilutive. This does not mean no sponsor equity was previously invested. LP19 |
| Beacon Point Phase 1 | $4.25bn, 6.129% secured notes due November 2042; completed June 9, 2026; amortization from May 2030. Proceeds support 352 IT MW, substation, reserves and fees. Tenant rated AA- or higher at that date. LP33 | Hut 8 describes fully amortizing, nonrecourse and nondilutive funding. Covenant restrictions on distributions and other actions remain relevant. LP20 LP33 |
Together these offerings total $7.5bn. They demonstrate a financing structure that was available for those projects; they do not establish equivalent tenant credit, guarantees, completion support or capital access for NUAI. Nonrecourse project debt still requires repayment from project cash flows and may restrict distributions.
Direct leasing can retain more residual value without eliminating financing partners. Preferred investors, lenders, guarantors and contractors may receive returns, security, warrants or completion protections. TeraWulf's contemporaneous Justified lease and agreement to sell its entire 50.1% Abernathy JV interest illustrate that direct development and capital recycling can coexist. LP01
Comparisons kept outside the five-bar chart
| Peer or transaction | Comparability boundary |
|---|---|
| Cipher Black Pearl and Barber Lake | The reviewed capacity disclosures use gross facility power or lack an updated matching critical IT denominator. Original and amended terms are kept separate. LP08 LP09 LP10 LP11 |
| Galaxy Helios | Published average annual base revenue is a different numerator. Phase 1: $315m / 133 IT MW / 1,000 / 12 = $197.4. Phase 2: $690m / 260 IT MW / 1,000 / 12 = $221.2. Both include escalators. Phase 1 was delivered; Phase 2 remained future development. LP12 LP13 |
| Riot's later AI-lab lease | Its $9.1bn initial value includes ramp before the full-delivery term. The disclosed annual-average revenue should not be confused with starting cash rent or combined with the original AMD vintage. LP15 |
| Core Scientific | Customer power, power reimbursements, customer capital funding and separate new agreements require distinct accounting and contractual boundaries. They are not interchangeable with gross controlled power. LP21 LP22 |
| IREN and Nebius | GPU-cloud obligations include hardware and services. Their contract values are not bare real-estate rent. Nebius's dedicated capacity and available-capacity purchase backstop are distinct obligations. LP23 LP24 LP25 |
| Fermi | The TensorWave announcement uses 222 MW of total facility power, not critical IT capacity; expansion rights are excluded. LP26 |
| Keel | The reviewed update describes a development pipeline and negotiations, not an established operating lease denominator. That does not prove no other agreement exists. LP27 |
| WhiteFiber | The $865m announcement includes nonrecurring installation/build revenue. Dividing it by 40 IT MW and ten years would not isolate recurring rent. LP28 LP29 |
Retained ownership and shareholder value
A lease, JV and sale or ground lease should be compared after financing, completion obligations and dilution. A larger ownership percentage is valuable only to the extent that more residual cash reaches each share.
For consistent, post-financing equity valuations, let X be the project equity value after project debt and preference claims, w the sponsor's residual participation, A other parent obligations not already included, and N fully diluted post-financing shares. The project contribution per share is (wX - A) / N. Direct development exceeds a JV only when that expression is higher. Funding proceeds and expenditures belong in the same cash-flow calculation; issued equity proceeds must not also be deducted as an economic loss after dilution is reflected in N. Tiered distribution arrangements require their actual waterfall rather than a flat ownership multiplier.
A sale or ground lease substitutes net consideration, fees, rents and any retained interest for part of the construction exposure. Its value also depends on taxes, retained guarantees and the timing of payment. None of these structures is inherently superior.
The available peer evidence does not establish a causal market valuation premium for a particular ownership or power configuration. Such a conclusion would require consistent valuation dates and controls for business mix, debt, preferences, dilution, customer concentration and development stage.
Source identifiers resolve to the accompanying public source register. The dataset retains individual contract vintages, delivery labels, options, transaction structures and unknown provisions.
Financing and liquidity: document boundaries
Research cutoff: October 22, 2026. Dollar amounts are US dollars. Historical contractual provisions below are not assertions about the operative amended agreement or current compliance.
Credit support and cash uses
| Component | Disclosed record | Economic interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Initial standby LC | $116m in favor of Luminant, issued under October 7 reimbursement agreement | Contingent PPA credit support, not construction proceeds. F01 |
| Cash collateral | At least 102% of undrawn face; approximately $118.3m initially | Pledged cash secures the same LC; do not count both as separate immediate cash uses. F01 |
| Funding | $60m A2/A3 proceeds plus approximately $58.3m existing PowerCo/TCDC cash | Debt and existing liquidity finance the collateral. F01 |
| Fees | 1% initial fronting, 2% annual LC fee | $1.16m initially and $2.32m annually at $116m face; excludes other financing costs. F01 |
| Drawing reimbursement | 12% interest on reimbursement of a drawing | Distinct from the ordinary term-loan rate. F01 |
| Further security | Up to $82.8m by Delivery Date, mutually acceptable form | Not established as immediate cash posting or the same collateral structure. F04 |
Collateral replacement or release requires its own conditions. A lease signature does not automatically release pledged cash. The October filing anticipated refinancing but did not establish its completion. F01
Historical loan provisions and current uncertainty
The original April 8 agreement has an April 8, 2029 stated maturity. Section 2.03(d) permits a written lender election at six months after the defined Closing Date if the Data Center Lease is unexecuted or aggregate draws are below $50m. The alternatives are payment within five days of notice or monthly principal installments of one-thirtieth of trigger-date outstanding loans. This is not automatic acceleration. F02
Original §6.20 requires at least $5m monthly parent equity pending lease execution and at least $20m after specified JV-related events, due within five business days after receipt of the specified notice. The money enters a blocked account. Section 7.06 permits a conditional return of prior contributions after the defined Energy Service Agreement, a tenant-side agreement rather than automatically the Luminant supply PPA. These are liquidity mechanics, not necessarily permanent consolidated costs. F02
October describes the loan as amended. The current amendments, consents, notices and contribution ledger are not established here. No current unpaid $20m amount, default or repayment demand is inferred. The July consent changed the ATM timetable and referenced procedural waivers; its summary does not resolve every later provision. F01 F03
Dated liquidity and equity evidence
The June 30 balance sheet reported $69,821,390 cash and equivalents and $15m restricted cash. The August 14 10-Q's management assessment concluded that substantial doubt had been alleviated at issuance. This is the latest relevant periodic assessment identified in the reviewed cutoff record, not an October liquidity certificate. Intervening operating, investing and financing flows prevent deriving October cash by simple subtraction. F06
The $100m ATM is optional gross issuance capacity, with commissions up to 3.5%; it is not cash raised. A hypothetical full sale at that maximum commission produces $96.5m before other costs. Share issuance depends on price, volume and actual execution. Existing outstanding shares, potential warrants and future ATM sales must not be treated as interchangeable quantities. F05
Project debt service, reserves and project ownership precede parent distributions. Vistra's disclosed 5% interest applies to the defined project company after delivery, rather than listed NUAI or all future phases. Parent liabilities and dilution then affect existing holders. A favorable project can therefore face a parent liquidity constraint without suffering an equivalent economic loss. F04
Data and source files
- Engineering, energy and water calculation data (JSON)
- Figure calculation ledger (CSV)
- Figure calculation ledger (JSON)
- Figure captions and source references (JSON)
- Peer lease and financing data (JSON)
- Source register (CSV)
- Source register (JSON)
Disclosures
See Ephesus Research's research disclaimer and conflicts policy.
Audit this conclusion
The conclusion can be summarized elsewhere. The full Ephesus Research page remains the place to inspect the calculation, evidence, sensitivities, revisions, and contrary evidence behind it.
Evidence guide
Evidence and judgment labels
Statements marked Fact are intended to be directly supported by cited evidence. Guidance, estimates, assumptions, inferences, and speculation remain separately named so they are not mistaken for verified facts.
100
mapped sources
Yes
primary support
Evidence map
Mapped public sources
First Quarter 2026 Business Update — Advancing TCDC Toward Commercialization
NUAI · May 18, 2026 · Texas
Relevant finding
Describes TCDC's 200 MW Phase 1, planned 450 MW behind-the-meter Phase 2 and 750 MW Phase 3, the path toward 1.4 GW, the Macquarie facility, the proposed GP/LP structure, and current permitting and commercial priorities.
Review notes
Company-furnished and forward-looking. Treat phase capacity, turbine procurement, adjacent-generation access, tenant discussions, project leverage, and timing as company guidance until supported by binding contracts, permits, lender commitments, and construction evidence.
Relevant pages: Slides 3-9 for funding, counterparties, TCDC phasing and near-term workstreams; slide 11 for capitalization; slides 15-16 for campus pipeline and proposed SPV structure.
Vistra PPA and development agreement — NUAI Form 8-K
NUAI · Sep 21, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Executed 200–207 MW Phase 1 PPA; $116m initial LC plus up to $82.8m additional credit support; 5% non-voting interest. The PPA is not a tenant lease. Full contract exhibits and bank terms remain unresolved.
Review notes
Coverage carried from the approved September 23, 2026 workbook. Unresolved commercial terms remain explicit; this release adds explanations without refreshing the information cutoff.
Relevant pages: Sections identified in the workbook Source Register and Filing Coverage tabs.
NUAI June 30, 2026 financial statements
NUAI · Aug 14, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Historical cash, restricted cash, funded debt, liabilities and securities. September cash is an analyst roll-forward, not a reported September balance.
Review notes
Coverage carried from the approved September 23, 2026 workbook. Unresolved commercial terms remain explicit; this release adds explanations without refreshing the information cutoff.
Relevant pages: Sections identified in the workbook Source Register and Filing Coverage tabs.
NUAI August 2026 TCDC business update
NUAI · Aug 17, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
207 / 550 MW development plan and capital structure. Residual 643 MW is the difference to the 1.4 GW masterplan; it is not Vistra-contracted capacity.
Review notes
Coverage carried from the approved September 23, 2026 workbook. Unresolved commercial terms remain explicit; this release adds explanations without refreshing the information cutoff.
Relevant pages: Sections identified in the workbook Source Register and Filing Coverage tabs.
NUAI Macquarie credit agreement
NUAI · Apr 8, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Funded A-1 borrowing and conditional/discretionary later tranches, minimum-return obligations and lender-election mechanics. Undrawn facility capacity is not cash.
Review notes
Coverage carried from the approved September 23, 2026 workbook. Unresolved commercial terms remain explicit; this release adds explanations without refreshing the information cutoff.
Relevant pages: Sections identified in the workbook Source Register and Filing Coverage tabs.
NUAI Macquarie amendment — July 2026
NUAI · Jul 22, 2026 · United States
Relevant finding
Reviewed amendment and funding requirements. An ATM-establishment requirement does not prove that shares have been sold or proceeds committed.
Review notes
Coverage carried from the approved September 23, 2026 workbook. Unresolved commercial terms remain explicit; this release adds explanations without refreshing the information cutoff.
Relevant pages: Sections identified in the workbook Source Register and Filing Coverage tabs.
NUAI LOC 20261008 - SEC 8-K
NUAI · Published 2026-10-08 · United States
Relevant finding
Executed agreement summarized; full documents deferred to Q3 10-Q.
Review notes
Evidence classification: executed agreement summarized; full documents deferred to Q3 10-Q. Transaction effective date 2026-10-07; publication date 2026-10-08. Peer financing is not a NUAI lending commitment. Full source-to-cell mappings and uncertainties are in the v2.6 register.
NUAI ATM 20260924 - SEC 8-K
NUAI · Published 2026-09-24 · United States
Relevant finding
Executed sales agreement; sales optional, no actual sale count disclosed.
Review notes
Evidence classification: executed sales agreement; sales optional, no actual sale count disclosed. Peer financing is not a NUAI lending commitment. Full source-to-cell mappings and uncertainties are in the v2.6 register.
APLD Q1 RELEASE - company earnings release
APLD · Published 2026-10-07 · United States
Relevant finding
Current update referencing earlier June financing.
Review notes
Evidence classification: current update referencing earlier June financing. Peer financing is not a NUAI lending commitment. Full source-to-cell mappings and uncertainties are in the v2.6 register.
HUT BEACON CLOSE - SEC 8-K
HUT · Published 2026-06-10 · United States
Relevant finding
Closed project notes; no verified LTC.
Review notes
Evidence classification: closed project notes; no verified LTC. Transaction effective date 2026-06-09; publication date 2026-06-10. Peer financing is not a NUAI lending commitment. Full source-to-cell mappings and uncertainties are in the v2.6 register.
CIFR BLACKPEARL DECK - company financing presentation
CIFR · Published 2026-02-04 · United States
Relevant finding
Tenant credit, capex basis and security description.
Review notes
Evidence classification: tenant credit, capex basis and security description. Peer financing is not a NUAI lending commitment. Full source-to-cell mappings and uncertainties are in the v2.6 register.
New Era Q2 filing and construction-permit update
2026-08-14
Relevant finding
550 MW air-permit application and gross 757 MW combined; not issued air permit or tenant IT capacity.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG04. Evidence classification: Company release.
Relevant pages: GlobeNewswire release 3345632
New Era supports strengthened Texas data-center oversight
2026-08-11
Relevant finding
Prioritizes closed-loop liquid cooling/reclaimed water; evaluating additional water/wastewater alternatives.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG05. Evidence classification: Company claim.
Relevant pages: Company investor-relations release
New Era About Us
Undated; observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
Advertises greater than 99% water reduction; baseline and engineering water balance not supplied in reviewed page.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG06. Evidence classification: Company marketing. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: Undated current company website
Texas Critical Data Centers project page
Undated; observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
Still displays earlier 200/450/750 MW phase plan; 99.99%+ SLA and multi-source cooling claims are not executed tenant contracts.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG07. Evidence classification: Company marketing. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: Undated current project website
Energy Dome and NUAI energy-storage partnership
2026-04-02
Relevant finding
Assessment framework; gas-turbine waste-heat integration; steady and stored-energy boost modes. No installed TCDC capacity or guaranteed duration.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG08. Evidence classification: Vendor statement / MOU.
Relevant pages: Energy Dome company announcement
TCDC and Thunderhead 250 MW strategic power agreement
2025-09-02
Relevant finding
250 MW non-binding arrangement, hybrid engines/turbines, contemplated Thunderhead finance/build/operate; Harbert funding relationship not project-specific financial close.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG09. Evidence classification: Company release / non-binding term sheet.
Relevant pages: Business Wire release 20250902177723
Cooling Water Efficiency Opportunities for Federal Data Centers
Undated; observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
Closed IT loop can reject heat through another loop and evaporative cooling tower; hybrid systems may require peak-day water.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG10. Evidence classification: Government technical guidance. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: US DOE FEMP; Direct Liquid Cooling Systems section; figure 2
Best Practices Guide for Energy-Efficient Data Center Design
Publication date: 2024-07; exact day not established
Relevant finding
Annual PUE and WUE definitions; maximize useful heat reuse/dry heat rejection; annual PUE is not a certified peak MW ratio.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG11. Evidence classification: Government technical guide. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: DOE FEMP / NREL; printed pp1,29-30; PDF pages10,38-39 (one-based)
Midland Top Ten Warmest Temperatures
Undated; observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
Midland record 116 F on June27 1994. Regional stress context, not TCDC design temperature.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG12. Evidence classification: Government climate record. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 1994-06-27. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: NWS Midland/Odessa climate records; 1930-2025 table
Electric Power Annual Table 8.2: Average Tested Heat Rates
2026-10-21
Relevant finding
Gas CC7535, internal combustion8853, turbine10975 Btu/kWh; full-load, capacity-weighted; not TCDC performance.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG13. Evidence classification: Government statistics. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2025.
Relevant pages: EIA Table8.2; FormEIA860; 2025 row
GE Vernova TM2500 specifications
Undated; observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
Illustrates ISO conditions, LHV convention and exclusions; no evidence that this is the TCDC machine.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG14. Evidence classification: Generic technical specification, not TCDC equipment evidence. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: Manufacturer product specifications
Kinder Morgan Q2 2026 results
2026-07-22
Relevant finding
GCX expansion placed in service June23; +570MMcf/d; total2.59Bcf/d. Not proof of site delivery.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG15. Evidence classification: Operator-reported completed event. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2026-06-23.
Relevant pages: KMI Q2 release; Natural Gas Pipelines highlights
Energy Transfer Q2 2026 results and outlook
2026-08-04
Relevant finding
Reports Hugh Brinson commercial service; expects full PhaseI1.5Bcf/d capability bySeptember1. Expected capability is not independently verified throughput.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG16. Evidence classification: Operator event plus guidance.
Relevant pages: ET Q2 release; strategic highlights
EIA natural-gas conversion FAQ
Undated; observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
1037Btu/cf normalization; heating value varies bylocation/customer/time. Used as illustrative conversion, not TCDC gas quality.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG17. Evidence classification: Government conversion guidance. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: EIA FAQ45
FERC/NERC lessons from Winter Storm Elliott
2023-11-07
Relevant finding
Gas/electric interdependence, freezing and fuel risks. Historical evidence does not forecast TCDC failure.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG18. Evidence classification: Government reliability investigation. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2022-12.
Relevant pages: FERC release R24-2; Elliott report summary
January 2024 Arctic storms review
2024-04-25
Relevant finding
Disconfirming evidence: improved performance with no major gas/electric incidents; preparations matter.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG19. Evidence classification: Government reliability review. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2024-01.
Relevant pages: FERC/NERC review announcement
Blackcomb project website
Undated; observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
No dated primary commissioning confirmation established in this workstream; do not count whole planned capacity as confirmed flowing.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG20. Evidence classification: Limited extraction; commissioning unverified. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: Official project homepage
New Era Helium initiates Phase1 250 MW project
2025-04-16
Relevant finding
Expected finalization of gas supply agreements and gas transmission access; old250MWplan is not current executed550MWgas contract.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: ENG21. Evidence classification: Historical company plan.
Relevant pages: Company investor-relations release
Odessa Planning and Zoning October 1 agenda packet containing September 17, 2026 meeting record
2026-10-01
Relevant finding
September 17 meeting record gives 4–0 conditional preliminary approval for New Era Phase 1, 63.42 acres in Odessa’s extraterritorial jurisdiction; proposed employee-only well with 150-foot setback.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN01, S08. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2026-09-17. Limitations: October 1 is the packet date. The record does not establish final plat recordation or satisfaction of staff conditions; detailed archived staff conditions were not retrieved.
Relevant pages: PDF page 6 (zero-based page 5), case 2026-91-P(ETJ)
Posted minutes of Odessa Planning and Zoning Commission, September 17, 2026
Undated; observed 2026-10-23
Relevant finding
Official posted meeting minutes for September 17, 2026.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN02. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2026-09-17. Limitations: Scan-only retrieval produced no extractable text during reinspection. The readable meeting record is cited through PN01. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: Five-page PDF; case 2026-91-P(ETJ)
ECAD parcel 47010.00020.00000
Undated; observed 2026-10-23
Relevant finding
Lists Texas Critical Data Centers LLC as owner of 235 acres on S Atwood Avenue; July 25, 2025 sale under instrument 2025-00014469.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN03. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2025-07-25. Limitations: The current page includes preliminary 2027 and 2026 assessments. It is not a current certified title report, physical site inspection or market valuation. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: Parcel summary; last sale instrument 2025-00014469
ECAD 2026 appraisal notice for parcel 47010.00020.00000
2026-04-01
Relevant finding
Dated tax assessment for the 235-acre tract with no assessed building value.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN03b. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2026-04-01. Limitations: A historical assessment cannot disprove subsequent construction.
Relevant pages: One-page notice dated April 1, 2026
Executed amendment to the 235-acre special warranty deed
2026-03-31
Relevant finding
Replaces the repurchase exhibit with commencement of pouring a qualifying data-center foundation within 24 months after amendment recording; original purchase price $1,527,500; conditional 80% repurchase mechanism.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN04, S06. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2026-03-25. Limitations: The retrieved exhibit does not establish the amendment recording date. March 25 execution and March 27 grantee acknowledgment are distinct from recording. Other deed terms remain.
Relevant pages: Exhibit 10.1; original deed 2025-00014469; replacement Exhibit A; legal description in Exhibit B
Executed amendment to the 205.13-acre special warranty deed
2026-03-31
Relevant finding
Identifies the December 19, 2025 acquisition of 205.13 acres for $5,128,250 and replaces the repurchase exhibit with the qualifying foundation-initiation condition.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN05, S07. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2026-03-25. Limitations: The amendment recording date was not obtained. Exhibit B has an apparent Midland/Ector wording inconsistency; this alone does not establish defective title.
Relevant pages: Exhibit 10.2; original deed 2025-00024528; replacement Exhibit A
New Era Form 8-K concerning land-deed amendments
2026-03-31
Relevant finding
Discloses amendment consideration of $4,347,500, comprising $1 million cash and a $3,347,500 note.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN06. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2026-03-25. Limitations: Historical consideration and any subsequent debt repayment are separate facts. This filing alone does not establish the current outstanding debt.
Relevant pages: Item 1.01; accession 0001213900-26-037454
Promissory note associated with deed amendments
2026-03-31
Relevant finding
Historical $3,347,500 note with July 20, 2026 maturity and 3.7% stated interest; repeats the narrowed foundation condition.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN07. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2026-03-25. Limitations: The historical instrument alone does not establish whether the obligation was later paid, amended or refinanced.
Relevant pages: Exhibit 4.1
Original 235-acre real-estate purchase contract
Undated; observed 2026-10-23
Relevant finding
Historical six- and nine-month milestones and a 24-month completed-foundation condition; title schedules include pipeline easements, a water disclaimer and a Dragon Products lease.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN08. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2025-07-17. Limitations: The repurchase exhibit was replaced in March 2026. The historical lease term ended February 28, 2026; no continuing lease is inferred. Physical pipeline removal does not establish legal easement release. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: Exhibit 10.1; schedules 5 and 6.9; historical repurchase exhibit
New Era second-quarter 2026 update and construction-permit announcement
2026-08-14
Relevant finding
Issuer reports county structure and driveway permits, a grading NOI approval, a closed 54-acre corridor acquisition, removal of 22 abandoned pipelines and one pending surface waiver.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN09. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2026-08-14. Limitations: Issuer disclosure is not independent permit verification. Pending items reflect the August disclosure date, not established October status.
Relevant pages: Recent Highlights and Construction Permits in Hand
Sharon AI Form 425 disclosure of Ramboll/EYP engineering appointment
2025-10-30
Relevant finding
Announces design and engineering services including powered shells and electrical systems.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN11. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2025-10-30. Limitations: No executed construction contract or completed construction drawings are appended. The historical 400 MW design concept is not a current accepted capacity.
Relevant pages: Full-site mandate for Ramboll Data Center Facilities, formerly EYP Mission Critical Facilities
New Era announcement of TCDC memorandum for a 1,600-mile fiber network
2025-09-17
Relevant finding
Describes a proposed network, designed sub-five-millisecond latency and more than 30 Tbps per fiber pair, with intended TCDC access.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN12. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2025-09-17. Limitations: Designed performance is not measured performance. The announcement does not establish a binding use-right agreement, operational campus route or physical diversity.
Relevant pages: GlobeLink Holdings memorandum; Global Connect Enterprises involvement
Sharon AI phase-one engineering announcement, original website
2025-09-30
Relevant finding
Historical retrieval described a nonbinding GlobeLink memorandum for dark-fiber use rights and maintenance services. The readable SEC-filed version is registered as PN13A.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN13. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2025-09-30. Limitations: The October 23 reinspection returned navigation without the release body. PN13A supplies the substantive text and has a September 29, 2025 dateline; the website date and release dateline are not conflated.
Relevant pages: Engineering announcement and Site Connectivity paragraph; historical website date September 30, 2025
GlobeLink Fiber network description
Undated; observed 2026-10-23
Relevant finding
Describes 2,500 miles under development, comprising 1,600 new greenfield Texas miles and 900 subsea miles.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN14. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Limitations: The undated marketing page does not establish commissioned routes, an as-built campus alignment or a complete historical page record. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: GlobeLink Network section; inspected October 22 and October 23, 2026
FiberLight Odessa regional network map
Undated; observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
Odessa is a region marketed by the operator.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN15. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Limitations: Interactive route geometry was unavailable in retrieval. Regional coverage does not establish a TCDC route, spare strands or serviceability. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: Embedded ArcGIS map at https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/36238f84106b4f239d641220baf72ba0
GlobeLink Fiber press page
Undated; observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
Uses existing-tense wording for 2,400-mile infrastructure, while other operator pages describe development.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN16. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Limitations: Inconsistent marketing tense does not resolve whether a particular route is operational. Campus-specific operating evidence was not supplied. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: TCDC/GlobeLink partnership announcement
GlobeLink Fiber announcement of Cequel III investment
2026-05-18
Relevant finding
Announces named investor support for network development, including Texas routes.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN17. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2026-05-18. Limitations: Does not disclose the investment amount, a funded completion schedule or a TCDC-specific allocation.
Relevant pages: Early-round strategic investment; financial terms undisclosed
Cequel III portfolio page
Undated; observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
The investor’s indexed portfolio lists GlobeLink.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN18. Evidence classification: ATTRIBUTED SOURCE WITH RETRIEVAL LIMITATION. Limitations: Rendered retrieval omitted the dynamic portfolio entries. The indexed entry does not establish investment amount or terms. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: Search-index entry for GlobeLink among current companies
FiberLight/Netsync Ector ISD dark-fiber deployment announcement
2024-06-11
Relevant finding
Operator reports successful deployment of a local school-district dark-fiber network with loop rerouting.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN19. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE (operator evidence). Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2024-06-11. Limitations: This operator/customer disclosure is not an independent site inspection and does not establish spare commercial capacity, TCDC access or two independent campus routes.
Relevant pages: 80-mile network and loop design; named customer quotation from CTO Kellie Wilks
FiberLight Texas Connector construction-completion announcement
2018-02-20
Relevant finding
Operator reports completed fiber construction connecting its Texas networks and discusses equipment turn-up separately.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN20. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE (operator evidence). Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2018-02-20. Limitations: Historical regional completion is not current site-specific bandwidth availability or contracted TCDC service.
Relevant pages: Texas Connector linking western footprint with Dallas, Austin, San Antonio and Houston
FiberLight West Texas expansion and investment announcement
2026-02-23
Relevant finding
Reports construction begun and targets partial service in six months and completion of the full program in less than two years.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN21. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2026-02-23. Limitations: Targets are not completion evidence. The calculated $250,000 per route mile is a broad program ratio, not standalone boring cost or a TCDC quotation.
Relevant pages: $350 million additional program covering approximately 1,400 route miles; delivery FAQ
FiberLight Midland-to-El Paso corridor expansion announcement
2026-09-22
Relevant finding
Describes a planned 300-mile corridor, a 150-mile Pecos–McNary phase targeted for late 2027, and 50-mile Monahans–Fort Stockton construction or overbuild underway.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN22. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2026-09-22. Limitations: The announcement does not establish that the full corridor is operating or that TCDC is connected.
Relevant pages: Project Phases
Fiber Broadband Association, Local Permitting for Fiber Network Projects
Publication date: 2025-09; exact day not established
Relevant finding
Cites approximately $80,000 per route mile for directional boring; discusses rights-of-way, coordination and local permitting.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN23. Evidence classification: TECHNICAL BENCHMARK. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2025-09. Limitations: A technical benchmark is not a TCDC quotation or all-in network cost. References to underlying 2024 and 2025 cost reports are inconsistent. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: PDF page 9, zero-based page 8; directional-boring benchmark and deployment considerations
Grow Odessa official website
Undated; observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
The branded organization uses the Odessa Industrial Development Corporation name.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN24. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT. Limitations: The executed instruments establish the deed counterparty. A similar name does not establish identity with the municipal economic-development entity. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: Membership and Odessa Industrial Development Corporation identification
Archived versions of the September 17, 2026 Odessa agenda
Undated; observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
The government archive publicly links the meeting’s staff-packet versions.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN25. Evidence classification: ACCESS LIMITATION. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2026-09-17. Limitations: The archived packets exceeded retrieval capacity. Detailed staff conditions remain unexamined. Archive URLs: https://www.odessa-tx.gov/AgendaCenter/ViewFile/ArchivedAgenda/_09172026-1514 and https://www.odessa-tx.gov/AgendaCenter/ViewFile/ArchivedAgenda/_09172026-1517 . The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: Archive versions 1514 and 1517, approximately 46.55 MB each
WULF Justified lease and Abernathy sale
2026-07-06
Relevant finding
Executed 401 critical-IT-MW, 20-year direct Anthropic lease; approximately $19 B expected initial-term revenue. Sale of entire 50.1% Abernathy JV interest. Credit support expected; not represented as closed.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP01, S14. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
WULF Q2 2026 earnings exhibit
2026-08-05
Relevant finding
81 MW revenue-generating IT at June 30; CB3 increased total to 102 in early July. Approximately $530 M Abernathy sale consideration versus $450 M invested. Justified revenue $33 B including renewals. Lake Mariner construction guidance $8-10 M/ITMW.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP02. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT that issuer filed disclosure; forecasts remain COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
WULF original Fluidstack leases
2025-08-14
Relevant finding
More than 200 ITMW, approximately 250 gross MW; $3.7 B initial 10 years/$8.7 B including options; Google $1.8 B backstop and 41 M warrants. Modified gross escalating leases; $8-10 M/ITMW construction guidance.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP03. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Relevant finding
Google recognition agreements become effective at lease commencement. On specified default, Google may pay the termination amount or assume lease/pay rent. This is not a blanket construction guarantee.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP04. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT that issuer filed disclosure; forecasts remain COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
APLD Polaris Forge3 lease
2026-05-20
Relevant finding
300 critical ITMW supported by 430 gross MW; 15-year take-or-pay agreement, $7.5 B initial/$18.2 B including options. Unnamed US investment-grade hyperscaler. August 2027 initial delivery guidance.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP05. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
APLD Macquarie financing terms presentation
2026-04-23
Relevant finding
Macquarie preferred plus 15% common: 12.75% PIK/cash return first five years, rising thereafter. Liquidation greater of accreted preference plus common FMV or 1.8 x MOIC. Seven-year force-sale right. Up to $2.25 M per leased MW.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP07. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT that issuer filed disclosure; forecasts remain COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Cipher Barber lease extension
2026-09-25
Relevant finding
September 25 amendment modifies original Fluidstack lease and accompanies a separate subsequent ten-year AI-lab commitment, adding approximately$5.2 B and extending total duration to 20 years. Cipher bears first$359.3 M over initial budget; tenant reimburses 50% beyond that through rent over 20 years with a contracted return. Total-deal NPV is not established by this clause alone.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP08, S13. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Relevant finding
Barber 300 gross MW, including 244 phase 1 and 56 phase 2; Black Pearl 300 gross MW. Company states grid-approved power without load restrictions. Gross capacity must not be used as an IT denominator.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP09. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT that issuer filed disclosure; forecasts remain COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Cipher Q2 2026 business update
2026-08-04
Relevant finding
Initial Black Pearl capacity delivered and rent commenced early August; remaining construction continues. Barber beneficial use/network racks do not establish rent start. Stingray financing returns $56.7 M previously invested equity.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP10. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Galaxy Helios PhaseI completion
2026-07-06
Relevant finding
133 ITMW/200 gross MW delivered PhaseI, with rent in Q2 2026. Contracted 526 ITMW/800 gross MW to CoreWeave, 15 years plus two five-year options. PhaseII 260 ITMW and PhaseIII 133 ITMW scheduled 2027/2028.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP12. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Galaxy Q2 2026 investor presentation
2026-08-05
Relevant finding
Page 16: PhaseI 133 ITMW, $315 M average annual base revenue, $1.8 B construction; PhaseII 260 ITMW, $690 M average annual base revenue, $4 B estimated construction. Annual averages include escalators; not first-year rent.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP13. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Riot initial AMD lease
2026-01-16
Relevant finding
25 critical ITMW, 10 years, $311 M initial/$1 B including three five-year options. Modified gross. $89.8 M retrofit plus separate $96 M land purchase. Expansion rights are not initial contracted MW.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP14. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Riot Q2 2026 presentation
2026-08-10
Relevant finding
191 ITMW, 20-year AI-lab agreement, $9.1 B initial including ramp/$16.1 B including renewals; published $457 M average annual revenue. Construction estimate $11-12 M/ITMW excludes existing infrastructure and tenant fit-out. Expected IG backstop in finalization. AMD now 50 MW contracted, 25 commissioned.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP15. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT that issuer filed disclosure; forecasts remain COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Hut8 RiverBend lease
2025-12-17
Relevant finding
245 criticalITMW, 15-year triple-net Fluidstack lease, $7 B initial including 3%annual escalator; $17.7 B including three five-year renewals. Google support covers lease payments/pass-throughs. Up to 1, 000 ITMW ROFO excluded. Initial hallQ22027 guidance.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP16. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Hut8 BeaconPoint PhaseI lease
2026-05-06
Relevant finding
352 ITMW, 15 years, $9.8 B initial/$25.1 B including options. Unnamed high-investment-grade tenant; triple-net take-or-pay.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP17. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Hut8 BeaconPoint PhaseII
2026-07-20
Relevant finding
Additional 352 ITMW at same campus. Total 704 ITMW against 1 GW gross. Combined initial-term revenue $19.6 B. Campus not yet delivered.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP18. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Hut8 RiverBend financing close
2026-04-30
Relevant finding
$3.25 B secured notes; 16.5-year fully amortizing tenor. Issuer describes nonrecourse, nondilutive construction funding. April 30 is announcement date, not necessarily closing event date.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP19. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Hut8 BeaconPoint financing close
2026-06-09
Relevant finding
$4.25 B secured notes; fully amortizing, nonrecourse, nondilutive, Baa 2 rated. Combined project construction financing $7.5 B.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP20. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
CORZ Q2 2026 10-Q
Undated; observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
590 MW CoreWeave leased customer power; 395 MW billable June 30. Power passed through without markup and recorded gross. July 27 AMD377 MW plus neocloud 152 MW 15-year leases. AMD 1, 925 MW reservation is not firm; AMD may, but need not, cure neocloud default. Warrants create dilution.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP21. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT that issuer filed disclosure; forecasts remain COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
CORZ Q2 2026 results
2026-07-28
Relevant finding
437 MW billing by mid-July. New approximately 530 MW/15-year agreements exceed $14 B potential base contracted revenue; total approximately 1.1 GW leased and more than $24 B potential contracted revenue.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP22. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Relevant finding
Microsoft five-year $9.7 B AI cloud agreement using 200 critical ITMW; 20% prepayment; approximately $5.8 B Dell equipment commitment. These GPU services are not bare colocation rent.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP23. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT that issuer filed disclosure; forecasts remain COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Relevant finding
Microsoft accepted Horizon 1. NVIDIA exemplar status. This does not establish that all 200 MW was delivered.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP24. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT that issuer filed disclosure; forecasts remain COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Nebius Meta agreement
2026-03-16
Relevant finding
Five-year $12 B dedicated capacity plus $15 B available-capacity backstop if capacity not sold to third parties. Initial deployment early 2027. GPU cloud, not rent; no comparable ITMW denominator.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP25. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
FRMI TensorWave binding lease
2026-08-10
Relevant finding
222 MW total facility power, 15 years, $6.5 B initial; two five-year renewals. Expansion rights exceeding 650 MW are not firm. H2 2027 target; requisite project guaranties/financing conditions.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP26. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Relevant finding
Negotiations at three priority sites with permitting work underway; 2.2 GW pipeline. This update does not establish a signed lease. August 7 liquidity $819 M includes $121 M bitcoin.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP27. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
WYFI Fluidstack release SEC exhibit
2025-12-18
Relevant finding
40 critical ITMW, 10 years, $865 M including nonrecurring installation/build charges and 3% escalator, excluding power and certain pass-throughs. Modified gross; customer pays PUE-adjusted electricity and tax allocations.99 MW utility agreement.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP28. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT that issuer filed disclosure; forecasts remain COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
WYFI September2026 presentation
Publication date: 2026-09; exact day not established
Relevant finding
NC1 active customer deployment and initial billing began August 2026. Do not infer all 40 MW was billing.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP29. Evidence classification: VERIFIED FACT that issuer filed disclosure; forecasts remain COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Cipher gas laterals development
2026-09-03
Relevant finding
Gas lateral development intended to support up to 2.5 GW new generation across sites; first power before end 2027 target and planned grid connection. This is not delivered capacity or evidence of fully islanded power.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP30. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE; transactional occurrence as announced. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
WhiteFiber Form8-K execution date
Undated; observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
Agreement executed November 22. Item 7.01 refers to December 16 announcement while furnished exhibit is dated December 18; preserve difference instead of treating all dates as execution date.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP31. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2025-11-22. Limitations: Issuer filings establish disclosed terms and reported milestones. Future delivery, revenue and cost estimates remain company guidance; unspecified terms are unknown. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Terrain Labs October commentary on New Era financing
Undated; observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
Original A3 conditions vsOctober financing discrepancy already discussed externally
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: N01. Limitations: Not relied on for contract terms or current default status The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Ephesus October20 CoreWeave and NUAI article
Undated; observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
Lease signature distinct from financial close andLC release already covered
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: N02. Limitations: Prior analysis provides context; primary filings govern contractual terms. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Governor August3 letter to PUCT and ERCOT
2026-08-03
Relevant finding
ERCOT-interconnection audit; resource and ownership reporting; denial for noncompliance
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: REG-01.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Governor directs TWDB reporting enforcement
2026-09-14
Relevant finding
Water-use reporting enforcement and ERCOT audit coordination
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: REG-03.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Texas Register October 2, 2026 adopted 16 TAC 25.194; Project 58481; TRD-202604027
2026-10-02
Relevant finding
ERCOT-interconnection scope, not-yet-energized criterion, 75 MW tests, co-location read with large-load definition, intermediate and SLLIA security, upgrade-cost comparison, separate CIAC and other obligations
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: REG-04. Evidence classification: Official adopted rule. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2026-09-18; 2026-10-08. Limitations: No project-specific TCDC applicability determination; source includes obsolete proposed-language discussion before the final operative text
Relevant pages: 25.194(a), (b)(1)(A)-(D), (b)(2), (c)(5),(14),(16), (d)(2)(B), (f)(2)(A)-(D), (f)(3), (g); final footer
Governor September 21, 2026 TCEQ data-center permit directive
2026-09-21
Relevant finding
Pause of permits related to data-center projects pending ERCOT review; October 19 agency response deadline
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: REG-06, S02. Evidence classification: Official statewide executive directive. Limitations: No express islanded exception, automatic restart date or TCDC-specific stop/revocation established
Relevant pages: Pages 1-2; operative pause paragraph on page 1
TCEQ October 19, 2026 response to Governor September 21 directive
2026-10-19
Relevant finding
Infrastructure directly supporting data centers; screening and pausing covered applications; claimed authorizations screened and suspended where possible
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: REG-07, S01. Evidence classification: Official agency implementation letter. Limitations: Does not identify TCDC's individual authorizations or their current disposition
Relevant pages: Page 1, paragraphs 2-3
White & Case summary of PUCT rule and permit pause
2026-09-25
Relevant finding
Secondary account of the rule and permit pause; the adopted rule governs the analysis.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: REG-08. Limitations: Not relied on in place of the operative final rule.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Ephesus NUAI PPA spark spread and power cost advantage
Observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
Prior coverage: power purchase costs, tenant recovery and generator margins are distinct.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: S16. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Relevant finding
Prior coverage: computing demand does not by itself establish investor return.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: S17. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Relevant finding
Secondary market-development context; not a substitute for primary project records.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: S18. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
TechTarget: TCEQ data center permit freeze may reach beyond ERCOT review
2026-09-24
Relevant finding
Secondary reporting used only to establish prior public discussion and limit novelty claims; primary agency letter controls current policy analysis.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: S19.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Hut8 River Bend financing Form8-K
2026-04-30
Relevant finding
Issuer reports $3.25B 6.192% secured notes due2042, partial project-construction funding, reimbursement of prior equity, reserves and fees. Semiannual amortization from May2028. Covenants restrict distributions and other actions. The filing states offering completion April27 and indenture April30; dates are preserved as reported.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: LP32. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2026-04-27. Limitations: Item1.01 summary reviewed; full indenture not exhaustively audited. Nonrecourse/nondilutive characterization attributed separately to issuer release LP19.
Relevant pages: See cited source and public source register
Sharon AI SEC-filed release on TCDC phase-one engineering and site connectivity
Undated; observed 2026-10-23
Relevant finding
Explicitly describes a nonbinding memorandum with GlobeLink to purchase dark-fiber use rights and associated operations and maintenance services for the proposed 1,600-mile Texas network.
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: PN13A. Evidence classification: COMPANY CLAIM OR GUIDANCE. Event/effective/period dates as recorded: 2025-09-29. Limitations: The release dateline is verified; the SEC filing date was not separately established. No signed binding use-right agreement or campus acceptance evidence is appended. The historical nonbinding status does not rule out subsequent undisclosed agreements. The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: Release dateline September 29, 2025; Site Connectivity paragraph; accession 0001829126-25-007797
ERCOT Request for Information Regarding Data Center State and Community Impacts
Undated; observed 2026-10-22
Relevant finding
Data centers at least 25 MW pursuing ERCOT interconnection; October 12, 2026 responses; intended report on or before December 10, 2026
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: REG-10. Evidence classification: Official ERCOT RFI information page. Limitations: Living page without a separate page publication date; no guarantee of permit reopening, no specific TCDC respondent status The displayed date qualification preserves the recorded month or observation basis; an otherwise unknown publication day is not established.
Relevant pages: Main RFI paragraph; key documents dated September 14 and September 18, 2026
ERCOT Market Notice M-B091426-01: Issuance of Request for Information Regarding Data Center State and Community Impacts
2026-09-14
Relevant finding
Issuance chronology
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: REG-11. Evidence classification: Official ERCOT market notice. Limitations: Direct fetch returned 403; full text not represented as reopened; deadline and threshold conclusions rely on REG-10 and REG-12
Relevant pages: Notice title and date; cross-reference in M-B091426-02 Long Description
ERCOT M-B091426-02: Voluntary State and Community Impact RFI Option for Newly Substantiated Medium Load Data Center Customers
2026-09-24
Relevant finding
Conditionally classified Batch Zero large-load cohort and substantiated 25-<75 MW medium-load cohort; voluntary newly substantiated medium-load option requested by October 5; unchanged October 12, 2026, 5 p.m. CPT response deadline
Review notes
Public source-register IDs: REG-12. Evidence classification: Official ERCOT market notice and clarification. Limitations: Does not establish that TCDC received an RFI or failed to respond
Relevant pages: Long Description and Action Required
Version control
Article change log
NUAI/TCDC: Technical Appendix
Oct 22, 2026 · NUAI
Published the supporting technical evidence, engineering sensitivities, lease comparisons and financing boundaries for the eight-gate investigation.
Previous
Technical evidence available only in the companion research package.
Revised
Native technical appendix with original public-source labels and downloadable calculation data.
Reason
Separate company announcements, executed-agreement disclosures, verified approvals and analytical scenarios across the path to bankable project cash flow.
Source
100-source public register, SEC agreement disclosures and transparent sensitivity calculations
Estimated effect
Adds research and evidence-monitoring criteria. No changes to existing financial model assumptions, calculations or per-share valuations.
Research status
Research status
Current
Conclusion
Mixed
Version
1.0.0
Last reviewed
Oct 22, 2026
Access
Public and free
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